When Andrej Babiš lost power in 2021, the billionaire populist’s fall seemed a significant victory for the struggle to challenge elite corruption. The Pandora Papers had exposed his secret property empire and mass protests had demanded his removal. But on 3 and 4 October, Czech voters sent a message that the cost of living may matter more than corruption. Babiš’s ANO party came first in the parliamentary election, defeating the moderate centre-right coalition that came to power in 2021 and setting Babiš up to reclaim his old prime ministerial job. For Czech civil society and independent media, trouble lies ahead.

Economic anxiety trumps corruption scandal

The Pandora Papers investigation into offshore tax avoidance found Babiš had bought a string of properties on the French Riviera, using a series of opaque shell companies in the British Virgin Islands tax haven to keep them off the asset declarations he was legally required to file.

Babiš is also due to face trial over the Stork’s Nest affair: allegations he fraudulently obtained €2 million (approx. US$2.3 million) in European Union (EU) small-business subsidies by concealing his ownership of a farm and conference centre. His response to police recommending fraud charges in 2019 was to sack the justice minister. He was also accused of kidnapping his son to prevent him testifying about the corruption claims.

During his term as prime minister from 2017 to 2021, Babiš’s corruption scandals sparked mass protests organised by the Million Moments for Democracy movement, with tens of thousands of people demanding his removal. But Babiš characterised corruption allegations as a baseless hate campaign led by the opposition and independent media. During his time in office he repeatedly mocked civil society and refused to enter into dialogue. He packed the agencies that control public media with his supporters, while oligarchs associated with him took over media houses.

The Czech Republic seemed to have turned a fresh page in 2021 when opposition parties joined together into two broad electoral coalitions that came first and third and then formed a government. But that government quickly became unpopular as the cost of living soared.

Like many European countries, the Czech Republic has experienced high prices of essentials, driven in part by oil and gas price spikes caused by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. 2022 saw mass protests demanding the government’s resignation and friendlier policies towards Russia, including a new agreement on gas supplies. Far-right and far-left parties played a key role in organising protests, united by their support for Russia.

Around the world, rising living costs are driving a rejection of incumbency at elections. Populist and nationalist parties have so far been most adept at speaking to public anger by offering deceptively simple solutions to complex economic and social problems. Their arguments seek to divide society and mobilise a section of the public against a perceived enemy, such as a country’s racial minorities, LGBTQI+ people and civil society groups that work to advance human rights.

It’s often new populist and nationalist forces that benefit when voters reject established parties. In the Czech Republic, however, it’s the former ruling party that’s capitalised on discontent on the basis of its association with more economically stable times.

What lies ahead

The Czech Republic benefits from having open civic space, where the authorities broadly respect people’s rights to organise, protest and speak out. But there are already some troubling signs. The Trump administration’s sudden closure of its USAID funding programme in early 2025 has hit Czech civil society hard. Organisations working on issues such as women’s rights and the welfare of Ukrainian refugees are among those struggling. They face financial difficulties precisely when they’re most needed to hold the incoming government to account.

Media independence may also be under threat: Babiš’s party resisted plans to secure financing for public TV and radio broadcasters ahead of the election and has promised to abolish the licence fees that give them independence from state control.

Babiš, who likes to campaign in a Trump-style red baseball cap, has brought two other right-wing parties into his planned coalition, which awaits approval from the pro-EU president: Motorists for Themselves, which opposes climate action, and Freedom and Direct Democracy, which campaigns against immigration and demands a referendum on leaving the EU and NATO. More regressive policies will likely be the price of their cooperation, including on the climate crisis, given that Motorists for Themselves expect to take control of the environment ministry.

A shift in the government’s stance towards Russia and Ukraine may also be on the cards. The Czech Republic is home to around 400,000 Ukrainian refugees, and the outgoing administration took a firm stance against Vladimir Putin, including by building a pipeline to end its reliance on Russian oil. But like many other populist leaders, Babiš has signalled he may be more placatory towards Putin. He’s said the threat from Russia is being exaggerated and has promised to withdraw the government-led scheme that supplies ammunition to Ukraine. Like elections that preceded it in other states Russia seeks to bring under its sway, Moldova and Romania, the campaign was awash with pro-Russia disinformation and propaganda.

Europe’s rightward shift

The Czech Republic is far from alone. Neighbouring Slovakia offers a similar story: pro-Russia populist Prime Minister Robert Fico lost power in 2018 amid mass anti-corruption protests but regained office in the 2023 election.

Right-wing populist and nationalists continue to make inroads across Europe. Last year, far-right parties came first in elections in Austria, France and the Netherlands. This year, a nationalist candidate won the presidency in Poland and far-right parties gained ground in Germany and Portugal.

Babiš’s biggest ally will likely once again be Hungary’s autocratic Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who’s repeatedly tested the limits of the EU’s human rights and rule of law standards. Orbán, the EU leader closest to Russia, has spearheaded an assault on civic freedoms and the rights of excluded groups, particularly LGBTQI+ people. Now he again has an ally at the helm of another EU country.

A Czech-Hungarian regressive alliance may however be short-lived: Orbán faces an election next year and the polls currently point to him losing to a centre-right challenger, although he’s a political survivor who’s seen off previous attempts to defeat him. But at a critical time in world affairs, not least for any hopes of resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict fairly, even a brief alliance could inflict lasting damage.

Over the coming years, Czech civil society will need to hold the government to account in difficult, resource-constrained times. The EU should play its part by urging the Czech government to keep civic space open and recognise civil society as a crucial partner in helping to tackle the problems the country’s voters have identified. Today’s cost of living problems are undoubtedly important and must be addressed – but there’s also a need to protect the freedom for people to keep scrutinising their government and disagree with it when they see fit.

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