The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December marks a historic shift for Syria after five decades of Assad family rule. Syria now has an opportunity for a democratic transition, but faces immense challenges including massive reconstruction needs and refugee resettlement. Having fulfilled major roles in providing aid and documenting and denouncing human rights violations during the civil war and under authoritarian rule, civil society organisations are now essential partners in building an inclusive transition process. The international community must support Syria’s dual transition from conflict to peace and from authoritarianism to democracy, while respecting Syrian leadership of these processes.

The sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December marks a historic turning point for Syria after over five decades of Assad family rule and a 13-year long civil war that involved every global and regional power.

Assad’s fall came as opposition armed groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched a coordinated offensive from Idlib province, long under their control, on 27 November. The rebels captured Aleppo, a major city, within three days, followed by Hama on 4 December and Homs two days later. They seized the capital, Damascus, on 8 December, forcing Assad to flee the country and seek asylum in Russia.

Nothing foretold the swift demise of a regime that appeared strongly in control — to the point that not too long before, Syria had been welcomed back to the Arab League after a 12-year suspension over the gross human rights violations committed during its civil war. Assad seemed like the leader both friends and foes would need to deal with for the long haul.

On the ground, incredulity at Assad’s fall soon gave way to relief. Millions of Syrians around the world rejoiced, although they quickly faced increased pressure to return home while still uncertain whether they’re able to do so safely. Inside Syria, many took to the streets in celebration, while others began a grim tour of prisons, hospitals and morgues in search of the missing. Around 150,000 people were forcibly disappeared since the start of the civil war in 2011, with many subjected to torture and execution in facilities such as the military-operated Sednaya prison, where an estimated 13,000 were killed between 2011 and 2015 alone.

Voices from the frontline

Abdelaziz Al-Hosse is an independent Syrian journalist.

 

When the rebels took control, Syrians took to the streets in celebration. At first, many could hardly believe what had happened, but soon expressions of happiness and joy filled the air. Syrians have many demands and expectations: they want peace and a chance to live a normal life, free from oppression and the constant fear of sirens, bombs and rockets.

Syrians hope a new government will bring stability and allow them to rebuild their lives and communities. And above all, the families of the disappeared are desperate for answers. They want to know what has happened to their loved ones who were detained with no warrant or documentation and vanished without a trace.

The end of the authoritarian regime opens the door for Syrians to rebuild their country and elect a government that truly represents them. But the situation remains fragile. Assad loyalists may try to destabilise the new order, while families of detainees and fighters will want revenge. This could lead to further chaos and bloodshed.

Democracy will take time. The current instability, combined with limited support from western countries during the conflict, has led many Syrians to doubt that we will receive any outside help. Economically, though, there’s some room for optimism. The lifting of sanctions, including those the USA imposed under the 2019 Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, will allow the economy to begin to recover. But political stability will be crucial for economic progress to materialise.

 

This is an edited extract of our conversation with Abdelaziz. Read the full interview here.

Dictatorship and civil war

The Assad dynasty’s grip on Syria began when Hafez al-Assad, an air force officer and member of the Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party – a mix of Arab nationalism, pan-Arabism, Arab socialism and anti-imperialism – seized power in a coup in the early 1970s. His rule was characterised by brutal repression, exemplified by the 1982 Hama massacre, in which an estimated 20,000 people were killed in a scorched-earth assault against Muslim Brotherhood opponents. This established what became known as the ‘Hama rules’ of Syrian politics — essentially, no rules at all in the pursuit of regime survival.

When Bashar al-Assad succeeded his father upon his death in 2000, he initially projected a more benign image. The London-trained ophthalmologist who married a British-Syrian investment banker engaged with the west and promised limited reforms. His early moves included releasing some political prisoners, mainly communists, and promising economic liberalisation. However, this façade masked the continuation of his father’s repressive regime, with power concentrated in the military, intelligence agencies and the small Alawite minority the Assad family is part of.

Under the Assad dynasty, independent civil society activity was severely restricted through Law 93 of 1958, which gave the authorities broad powers to deny permits for civil society organisations (CSOs) and monitor their activities. The regime maintained tight control through a vast security apparatus that monitored people’s daily activities everywhere, from the workplace to the market. It coopted professional associations and trade unions, while it dealt with independent organisations with systematic harassment, surveillance and persecution. By 2009, Syria ranked among the world’s most repressive states. Following a major crackdown on dissident and opposition leaders, Freedom House included it in the ‘Worst of the Worst’ section of its annual report.

Protests began peacefully in March 2011, as part of the wider regional wave of mobilisations known as the Arab Spring, with teenagers scrawling anti-regime graffiti on public walls in Daraa. Protesters subsequently called for democratic reforms and an end to corruption. Civil society played a pivotal role in these early stages, with over 400 local coordination committees emerging across Syria to connect activists and document human rights violations. Women’s groups were particularly active, with organisations such as the Syrian Women’s Political Movement organising protests and providing support to affected communities.

But Assad’s deadly response, backed by Lebanese Hezbollah fighters and advisors from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), turned peaceful demonstrations into an armed uprising, with the conflict rapidly evolving into a complex civil war drawing in regional and global powers.

For several years, Iran and Russia provided crucial military support to Assad, while Turkey, the Gulf states, particularly Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and western powers backed various opposition groups. The rise of Islamic State, which controlled large areas across Iraq and northern Syria in 2014, further complicated the situation, leading to US intervention. By 2015, Assad controlled only 25 per cent of Syrian territory. However, Russian military intervention subsequently helped him gradually reclaim most opposition-held areas through devastating bombing campaigns that destroyed much of Aleppo, Homs and other major cities. Starting in 2012, several peace negotiation processes were attempted, but they all failed.

The civil society response

The human cost of the war has been catastrophic. According to estimates by human rights organisations, as many as 620,000 people have been killed, although figures are difficult to verify. More than half of Syria’s pre-war population of 22 million has been displaced, 6.8 million as refugees abroad and another 6.7 million internally. Turkey hosts the largest number of Syrian refugees, at 3.6 million, followed by Lebanon with 1.5 million and Jordan with 675,000. In Europe, Germany is the largest non-neighbouring host country, having received over 850,000 Syrian refugees.

Syrian civil society has been instrumental in keeping the international spotlight on the conflict, advocating for humanitarian support and providing vital help to people on the ground. Between 2014 and 2023, Syria Civil Defence, known as the White Helmets, rescued over 128,000 people from bombing sites. CSOs became crucial providers of humanitarian aid, reaching millions of people in areas not controlled by the government. Women’s groups continued working underground, even in areas under the control of hardline Islamist groups, maintaining networks that provided education and healthcare. Civil society groups kept up detailed documentation of human rights violations. Hundreds of Syrian diaspora organisations spread across dozens of countries formed networks to support reporting, undertake international advocacy and coordinate humanitarian assistance.

But many paid the ultimate price for their work. Over the years, the regime abducted tens of thousands of civil society and political activists, journalists and government critics, kept them in illegal detention and subjected them to brutal torture and inhumane treatment. Many were killed, their bodies never recovered. Exercising freedoms of expression and peaceful assembly became virtually impossible in most of the country, particularly in areas controlled by government forces or radical Islamic groups. In besieged areas, the regime’s ‘kneel or starve’ strategy deliberately targeted civil society networks that sustained community resilience. Civil society was also affected by indiscriminate bombings.

The abrupt end

Years of war hollowed out Syria’s military, while economic collapse left 90 per cent of the population living in poverty and the Syrian pound virtually worthless. When rebels advanced, demoralised government forces largely abandoned their posts, with entire units surrendering or fleeing.

But a key factor in Assad’s abrupt end lies in the shifting geopolitical landscape that diverted the attention and resources of his international allies. Russia’s preoccupation with its war on Ukraine severely limited its ability to provide much-needed support: Russia conducted only minimal airstrikes during the rebel offensive, in stark contrast with its intensive bombing campaigns between 2015 and 2020. Iran and Lebanon-based Hezbollah’s capacity to intervene was similarly constrained by their ongoing conflict with Israel.

This means that beyond Syria, Assad’s fall has created clear winners and losers. Russia has suffered a major setback, losing its main Arab ally and strategic Mediterranean bases, including its only naval base in the area and an air base. Iran’s regional influence has been severely diminished, with Iranian officials confirming the deaths of several IRGC advisers during the rebel advance.

On the winning side is Turkey, gaining increased influence in northern Syria and an opportunity to address Kurdish separatist concerns along its border. The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army has taken control of several towns previously held by Kurdish forces. Israel benefits from the weakening of Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’ and disruption of supply lines to Hezbollah, as well as from its newly established ‘buffer zone’ in the Golan Heights region, a Syrian territory held by Israel under military occupation.

Prospects for peace and democracy

But the real question is whether everyday Syrians will end up on the winning side of the equation. After decades of dictatorship and civil war, the challenges are daunting. The costs of rebuilding Syria were estimated at somewhere between US$250 billion and US$440 billion in 2019, and now are likely to be much higher. Infrastructure is in dire state: in 2021, for instance, over 40 per cent of hospitals and health facilities were partially or completely non-functional. Schools are in a similar state.

Key institutions such as the judicial system need comprehensive reform, not only because numerous courthouses have been damaged or destroyed but also because judges and lawyers have fled the country.

Voices from the frontline

Alaaiddien Ayoub is founder and director of EPISA, a CSO that supports sustainable development, democratic approaches, peacebuilding processes and inclusion in Syria.

 

The focus is on restoring critical infrastructure such as water, electricity and telecommunications, and getting health and education systems back on track. Teams are working to assess and repair damaged facilities, but the scale of the destruction is immense and there are major financial and logistical hurdles.

The international community has a vital role to play. While some Arab countries such as Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia have provided some support, it’s not enough to meet the country’s needs.

One of the most immediate steps should be to lift economic sanctions, which are slowing down recovery efforts and disproportionately affecting people. Syrian expatriates and CSOs are playing key roles in advocating for the lifting of sanctions and more international aid to speed up reconstruction efforts.

Immediate humanitarian and infrastructure needs must be addressed while laying the foundations for long-term stability. Democracy can’t thrive in an environment of widespread deprivation. Syria needs continued support in critical areas such as education, health and poverty reduction. Its recovery and democratic transition require a comprehensive, multi-faceted approach that combines international solidarity and local ownership.

Civil society has already proven to be a cornerstone of the reconstruction process. Organisations such as the White Helmets have demonstrated their ability to respond to urgent humanitarian needs. It will be key to empower CSOs to support reconstruction, monitor government activities and promote transparency, accountability and inclusiveness. And this support must be free of external political agendas.

The international community must foster an inclusive political environment, with governance structures that reflect Syria’s cultural and religious diversity. It must encourage dialogue and support CSOs, including EPISA, that are working to move away from divisive narratives, promote a sense of shared citizenship and inspire hope. And it must support fair and transparent elections.

 

This is an edited extract of our conversation with Alaaiddien. Read the full interview here.

Reconstruction will require sustained international resourcing, but the transition must remain Syrian-led. The international community must prioritise support for civil society efforts to ensure an inclusive and sustainable transition.

Following Assad’s fall, civil society moved quickly to assert its role. A coalition of 78 Syrian and international CSOs operating in Syria sent a letter to the European Union urging the development of a transition plan that includes all of Syria’s people and ethnic communities.

The transitional government, led by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani of the HTS, has reassured Syrians of all faiths and backgrounds, including Christians and other minorities, that they will retain the right to practise their religion freely. But while al-Jolani has recently attempted to recast himself as a moderate, valid concerns remain about the prospects for civic space, women’s rights and minority rights under HTS rule, based on both al-Jolani’s past statements about non-Sunni minorities and the HTS’s track record in Idlib, a provincial capital long under its control.

Some have expressed reservations about the composition of the transitional government, which appears to disproportionately favour those associated with the Idlib administration. The Alawite minority, comprising around 2.5 million people, fears retribution. And Syria’s Kurds have already lost control of several Kurdish areas to Turkish-backed forces and are uncertain about their future.

On 23 December 2024, thousands of women protested in the city of Qamishli to demand equal rights, shortly after a spokesperson for the transitional authorities said women were unfit for some government jobs because of their ‘biological and physiological nature’. A week later, the appointment of Maysaa Sabine as the first woman to lead Syria’s central bank however suggested some potential for progress in women’s representation.

Early January 2025 saw visits by the French and German foreign ministers, who met with civil society representatives. But around the same time, a planned national dialogue involving 1,200 participants, including 30 per cent women and representatives from all ethnic and religious groups, was postponed after some key groups complained of being excluded. Crucially, the mechanism was meant to chart the transitional process, establish committees for drafting a new constitution and set up a unity government in charge of calling presidential elections.

The coming months will be crucial in determining whether Syria is able to overcome fragmentation, conflict and authoritarianism. For the dual transition to peace and democracy to succeed, the international community must restore its diplomatic presence while abstaining from interfering, promote the disbandment of armed groups and disarmament, help secure and destroy chemical weapons, bring in the resources needed for humanitarian relief and rebuilding, enable the safe, voluntary return of refugees, help reconstruct a justice system, promote accountability and reconciliation initiatives and support a peaceful transition through free and fair elections. This is a huge agenda that can’t be achieved without enabling and working with civil society.

While Assad’s fall has created an opening for positive change, careful management of competing interests, effective security arrangements and inclusive political dialogue will be essential to achieve a peaceful and democratic future for Syria. The path ahead is uncertain, but for the first time in decades, there is genuine hope for meaningful change.

OUR CALLS FOR ACTION

  • Transitional authorities must ensure meaningful civil society participation in all peace negotiations and constitutional reform processes.
  • The international community must provide sustained funding and capacity-strengthening support to Syrian civil society organisations leading reconstruction and reconciliation efforts.
  • International donors should support independent Syrian media, documentation of human rights violations and accountability initiatives.

For interviews or more information, please contact research@civicus.org

Cover photo by Izzalden Alkasem/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images