CIVICUS discusses the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria with independent journalist Abdelaziz Al-Hosse.

After eight years of stalemate, rebel forces launched attacks that led to the sudden collapse of the authoritarian regime. As Assad fled to Moscow, celebrations erupted across Syria, with people reclaiming public spaces and celebrating their newfound freedom. But the future is uncertain, with factionalism, foreign interference and the resurgence of radical Islam looming large and reconstruction an immediate key challenge.

What triggered the rebel offensive?

On 30 November we saw the most significant shift in the conflict in years, as Syrian rebels launched a surprise offensive and captured Aleppo, Syria’s second largest city. This came after an eight-year stalemate that started when the government recaptured rebel-held areas and Russia and Turkey agreed a de-escalation deal.

The offensive was triggered by relentless bombing by Assad’s forces, Iranian drones and Russian jets, targeting civilians in rebel-held areas. Anger and calls for revenge had been growing among the rebels, and they seized the opportunity when they saw a weakness.

Rebel forces regained control of critical locations, including Kafranbel, Maarat al-Numan, Saraqib and the Abu al-Duhur military airport in Idlib. When the rebels captured Hama, the regime’s collapse became inevitable. Its defences fell apart with minimal resistance. Assad fled and sought asylum in Russia, while Abou Mohammed al-Golani, leader of the Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham rebel force, entered the Syrian capital, Damascus, on 8 December.

What does the fall of the Assad regime mean for Syrians on the ground?

As the rebels began to regain territory and opposition groups consolidated control over towns and villages in the northern countryside of Hama, some residents began to return to their homes. They saw this as a chance to rebuild their lives. Others were more cautious. They were worried about the unpredictable changes in power and the continuing instability in the region.

But when the rebels took control, Syrians took to the streets in celebration. At first, many could hardly believe what had happened, but soon expressions of happiness and joy filled the air. Syrians have many demands and expectations: they want peace and a chance to live a normal life, free from oppression and the constant fear of sirens, bombs and rockets.

Syrians hope a new government will bring stability and allow them to rebuild their lives and communities. And above all, the families of the disappeared are desperate for answers. They want to know what has happened to their loved ones who were detained with no warrant or documentation and vanished without a trace.

What role have external forces played in the conflict?

The Syrian conflict has always been influenced by external forces. On the rebel side, Turkey and Qatar have played a crucial role. Turkey provided logistical and military support and facilitated the flow of resources to rebel-held areas. Qatar contributed to the opposition’s position through diplomatic channels and humanitarian aid.

Russia was the Assad regime’s most important ally, providing military expertise, advanced weaponry and intelligence support. Russian forces played a crucial role in bolstering Assad’s defences through airstrikes and strategic operations, helping the regime maintain control over key areas for years.

In the current context, Turkey and Qatar emerge as the winners, while Russia faces a major setback. It invested heavily in Assad’s survival and his fall represents a strategic loss for its regional ambitions.

What will the post-Assad era look like?

The post-Assad era presents opportunities and challenges. The end of the authoritarian regime opens the door for Syrians to rebuild their country and elect a government that truly represents them. But the situation remains fragile. Assad loyalists may try to destabilise the new order, while families of detainees and fighters will want revenge. This could lead to further chaos and bloodshed.

Democracy will take time. The current instability, combined with limited support from western countries during the conflict, has led many Syrians to doubt that we will receive any outside help. Economically, though, there’s some room for optimism. The lifting of sanctions, including those the USA imposed under the 2019 Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, will allow the economy to begin to recover. But political stability will be crucial for economic progress to materialise.