CIVICUS speaks with Natallia Satsunkevich, human rights defender and interim board member of the Viasna Human Rights Centre, about the state of civil society in Belarus, the impact of repression on opposition movements and the role of the international community in supporting democracy.

In Belarus, political repression remains at an all-time high, with independent media silenced, civil society dismantled and opposition figures either imprisoned or forced into exile. Its sham election, held on 26 January, reinforced dictator Alexander Lukashenko’s grip on power, with no credible opposition and widespread repression ensuring a predetermined outcome. Against this backdrop, the role of exiled activists has become increasingly vital in sustaining the democratic movement, advocating for political prisoners and keeping Belarus on the international agenda.

What space exists for civil society and opposition in Belarus?

The political and civic space in Belarus has been almost entirely eliminated. Public protests and independent election campaigns are impossible, and most of the opposition has been forced to operate from exile. However, being in exile makes it harder to engage directly with people, which weakens the overall impact of our work.

The government tightly controls information. State-controlled media dominate the information landscape, and the government encourages state-backed organisations to absorb civic engagement and prevent independent activism. It labels independent media and opposition voices as ‘extremist’, silences and criminalises them. A long list of banned materials, including online news platforms and books, further limits access to alternative viewpoints.

Despite these restrictions, grassroots movements, particularly of young people, continue to engage in social causes. However, authorities closely monitor even clearly non-political activities to prevent them evolving into political movements.

What influence de exiled activists and leaders have?

Exiled human rights defenders and activists, working in connection with those who remain in Belarus, monitor and document political persecution and expose state abuses. They also support other Belarusians in exile with legal, healthcare and documentation issues.

Exiled opposition leaders face significant challenges, because those inside Belarus who engage with them are at risk of persecution. Their primary influence is therefore through international advocacy, as they try to raise awareness of repression and keep pressure on the regime. Although they cannot mobilise inside Belarus, their work is crucial in keeping the democratic movement alive.

How has Russia’s war on Ukraine affected Belarus’ domestic politics

The war in Ukraine has deepened Belarus’ political and military dependence on Russia, with serious consequences for human rights and domestic politics. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, security cooperation between the two countries has increased, leading to more authoritarian practices in Belarus. The Belarusian security forces have become more violent, using firearms during politically motivated arrests to instil fear among potential dissidents.

Belarus has also played a logistical role in supporting Russia’s war effort. Its territory has been used for Russian military operations, and Belarusian hospitals have treated Russian soldiers. Reports also suggest that Belarus has been involved in the forced transfer of Ukrainian children to Russia under the false pretext of offering ‘rest and rehabilitation’. These actions increase Belarus’ complicity in the war and expose it to potential international legal consequences.

For Belarusians, the war has reinforced the climate of fear. While many are aware of their country’s growing subordination to Russia, open criticism is dangerous. The war has given the authorities an excuse to crack down on dissent, portraying opposition to the regime as a form of disloyalty in the context of the broader geopolitical crisis.

As Belarus grows closer to Russia, its ability to make independent decisions is shrinking. This increasing dependence will likely continue after the war, further limiting the chances of democratic change.

What can the international community do to support democracy in Belarus?

While the path to democratic change is uncertain, continued international pressure and solidarity are essential to sustaining the movement and countering repression. With the regime shutting out external engagement, international efforts should focus on supporting exiled Belarusians, sustaining civil society and advocating for political prisoners.

Securing the release of political prisoners is a top priority. Over 1,200 remain jailed, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski.

Provision of legal, financial and institutional support to the Belarusian diaspora is also key for strengthening the broader democratic movement. Funding for civil society groups and human rights defenders ensures the continuity of human rights monitoring and international advocacy. Giving Belarusian voices a platform through media and policy discussions helps keep their cause visible.