CIVICUS discusses civic space and the prospects for democracy in Belarus with a representative of the Barys Zvozskau Belarusian Human Rights House (BHRH) who asked to remain anonymous for security reasons.

Established in Lithuania in 2006, BHRH supports Belarus’s human rights movement from exile, as operating within the country has become virtually impossible under President Alexander Lukashenko’s authoritarian rule. Belarus has around 1,100 political prisoners, and civil society has been forced underground or into exile. While Lukashenko has hinted his current term may be his last, tight political control and Russia’s backing offer little prospect for democratic change in the near future.

What’s life like under Lukashenko’s rule?

Almost all basic freedoms have been taken away. Belarus is closer than ever to totalitarianism, with closed civic space and repression a part of daily life. Speaking out against the government can land you in prison. Something as small as liking or commenting on a social media post can lead to prosecution.

Independent media outlets have been shut down and state media spreads propaganda that dehumanises activists and opposition leaders. The government labels independent voices as extremists, making any contact with them a crime. Some books have been banned and physically destroyed.

Human rights defenders are constantly harassed, and there are currently around 1,100 political prisoners, including Nobel Prize winner Ales Bialiatski, serving long sentences.

LGBTQI+ people are targeted under Russian-style laws and migrants have been instrumentalised and criminalised. Starting in 2021, the regime lured migrants, primarily from Africa and the Middle East, to Belarus with promises of easy entry to the European Union, then used security forces to push them towards the Lithuanian and Polish borders as a form of political pressure. These migrants now face abuse and exploitation, trapped between borders and unable to return home or move forward safely.

What happened to civil society after protests in 2020?

Mass anti-government protests in 2020 were a turning point, as they proved Belarusians could still mobilise. But the brutal crackdown meant civil society lost much of its leadership and was forced underground. Yet it didn’t disappear: many activists, journalists and opposition leaders went into exile and reorganised abroad.

Today, Belarusian civil society is scattered across Europe but remains active and connected to people back home. We advocate for the release of all political prisoners, campaign for an end to repression and keep people engaged with democratic values through education and cultural initiatives and by countering propaganda.

In September, following US-mediated negotiations, the regime released 52 detainees, including activists, journalists and foreign nationals, in exchange for sanctions relief on the state airline. Belarusians abroad raised over €100,000 (approx. US$117,000) to support recently released political prisoners. This solidarity shows how resilient civil society is, even as repression continues.

What role does Russia play in sustaining the regime?

The survival of Lukashenko’s regime is closely tied to Russia. Moscow has been its main guarantor for years and, in exchange, Lukashenko offers unwavering loyalty. Without Russian political backing, financial support and military protection, his regime would struggle to stay in power.

But this dependence comes at a high cost. Belarus provides logistical and medical support for Russian troops and has facilitated the transfer of Ukrainian children, a violation of international law that many Belarusians feel ashamed of but cannot publicly condemn without risking ending up in prison.

Lukashenko occasionally tries to show independence by negotiating with western governments, but these gestures are limited and tactical.

Is a democratic transition possible?

At present, prospects for democratic change are extremely limited. Lukashenko’s regime has consolidated power through ruthless repression, and as long as Russia remains its ally, the space for internal democratic transformation will remain narrow.

Change is still possible, but it will depend on two key internal and external factors: the outcome of the war in Ukraine, which could affect Russia’s ability or willingness to back Lukashenko, and Belarusians’ capacity to rebuild institutions and values once space for change emerges.

The economy is under severe strain, with labour shortages in vital areas such as healthcare. Society is divided: most people face systematic repression, while security forces enjoy impunity and privileges. This imbalance can’t last forever. When an opening for change eventually comes, whether through external or internal shifts, Belarusians will need to be ready to foster a genuine culture of rule of law and accountability.

Can international pressure make a difference?

Sanctions and diplomatic pressure are among the few tools available to hold Lukashenko’s regime accountable. Restrictions on trade, exports and financial access hit the regime where it’s most vulnerable and speak louder than appeals to legal norms and human rights.

However, Lukashenko uses political prisoners as bargaining chips to ease sanctions. This tactic is not new: after contested elections in 2006 and 2010 he selectively released prisoners to push for lower sanctions. The recent episode follows the same pattern: within days of the September releases, eight new politically motivated convictions followed, showing that while some prisoners are freed to win concessions, repression continues unabated.

Sanctions alone can’t dismantle authoritarianism, but they remain one of the strongest signals the international community can send, particularly when paired with consistent monitoring by United Nations human rights experts and organisations such as the International Labour Organisation. To be truly effective, the international community must use them as part of a broader strategy: to secure prisoner releases, but also to demand a complete end to politically motivated prosecutions and to strengthen justice for victims of repression.