South Sudan may be sliding towards another civil war. Violence escalated dramatically in March, with a longstanding feud between President Salva Kiir Mayardit and Vice President Riek Machar threatening to plunge the country back into full-scale civil war. On 26 March, Kiir placed Machar under house arrest, accusing him of inciting violence. As clashes intensify, the 2018 peace agreement that ended years of bloodshed hangs by a thread.

Kiir and Machar’s rivalry fuelled a devastating conflict between 2013 and 2018. Many still bear the scars of that war and dread the prospect of another.

Spiralling violence

Tensions erupted in March when the White Army, an armed youth group opposed to the government, attacked a military base in the city of Nasir. Days later, armed men opened fire on a United Nations (UN) helicopter that was evacuating South Sudanese soldiers from Nasir, killing 28 people, including a UN crew member. In response, the government launched aerial bombardments and brought in Ugandan troops to help fight the White Army – Uganda’s third military intervention in South Sudan.

The crisis intensified further with Machar’s house arrest. Kiir, who belongs to the Dinka ethnic group, South Sudan’s largest, accused Machar of backing the White Army. Both Machar and the militia come from the country’s second-largest ethnic group, the Nuer. The White Army denies any formal ties to Machar and insists it acts independently, but his arrest triggered a violent reaction, first in the Nasir region and then spreading to several other parts of the country.

Machar’s detention adds to a growing list of over 20 political and military figures loyal to him who’ve been detained since February. Activists have also been targeted. Political activist Agel Ring Machar was arrested in late March for writing about the crisis. In today’s South Sudan, speaking out or criticising the government carries repercussions.

After Machar’s arrest, his party, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement In Opposition (SPLM-IO), claimed the peace agreement was invalid. Forces loyal to him retaliated, attacking the military in the capital, Juba.

International alarm has grown as the violence has escalated. In late March, UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that the country is on the edge of civil war.

Broken promises and recurring conflict

The roots of today’s crisis run deep. Sudan gained independence from colonial rule in 1956 but civil war quickly erupted, with the south demanding self-government. Southern Sudan was granted autonomy in 1972, but war resumed in the 1980s. Kiir and Machar fought side by side in the southern rebel movement during the second Sudanese civil war. In 2011 they won their shared goal of independence. South Sudan became the world’s newest country after an independence referendum passed with 98.8 per cent support.

But independence didn’t bring peace. Kiir, the pre-independence president of the Government of Southern Sudan, became the new country’s president, and tensions with Machar soon surfaced. In 2013, Machar denounced Kiir as a dictator while Kiir accused Machar of undermining his government and plotting a coup.

What began as a political power struggle quickly turned into widespread ethnic violence, mainly between the Dinka and Nuer groups. Uganda intervened, fighting alongside South Sudanese government forces. Between 2013 and 2018, 400,000 people were killed, 1.8 million were internally displaced and 2.5 million fled to neighbouring countries. There were horrific abuses, including mass killings, rape and the recruitment of child soldiers.

A 2018 peace agreement between Kiir’s South Sudan People’s Liberation Movement In Government and Machar’s SPLM-IO promised a new beginning: a unity government, the integration of rebel forces and government soldiers into a unified national army, the creation of a court to prosecute crimes committed during the war, a new constitution and elections. In 2020 a coalition government was formed, with Kiir as president and Machar as vice president. Yet a lack of political will has left implementation of the peace agreement stalled at every turn.

An election promised for 2022 was postponed, supposedly until 2024, and has now been delayed again until 2026 due to what the government calls ‘incomplete’ preparations. The last election was held in 2010, before South Sudan’s independence. Kiir is his country’s only-ever president – without ever having won a vote for the role he holds.

The promised court to prosecute war crimes was never established, likely because those holding top political positions fear prosecution. Neither side has been willing to give up their armed forces either, since it would mean losing leverage in case of a disagreement. The new constitution still hasn’t been drafted, and while the ceasefire has largely held, violence between ethnic groups and clashes between government forces, ethnic militias and opposition groups have persisted in several areas.

The deepening political crisis has further closed civic space. Civil society groups, journalists and activists face constant harassment, intimidation and detention simply for speaking out. Dissent is being silenced through censorship and restrictive laws, such as the new National Security Bill, and by abductions and forced disappearances. Activists, critics and independent media face surveillance and threats, while youth leaders and human rights defenders are targeted for their work. Despite the intensifying attacks, civil society courageously persists, demanding accountability, defending fundamental rights and pushing back against repression.

The human cost

The fighting threatens to worsen an already dire humanitarian situation, compounded by a cholera outbreak. Improvised air-dropped incendiary bombs have killed and burned dozens of people, including children, and destroyed civilian infrastructure. These weapons, while not formally banned in South Sudan, are prohibited under Protocol III of the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons when used in civilian areas, and their use could amount to war crimes.

The consequences of renewed violence are already being felt. Food prices are rising, schools are shutting down and healthcare services are collapsing. People live in constant fear as targeted attacks, looting and forced displacement continue to mount. Some 70 per cent of people now need humanitarian assistance but aid workers are struggling to reach them. US funding cuts are making the task more difficult.

Tens of thousands have fled across borders. Those who remain, particularly women and girls, face grave dangers. With limited access to basic services, many risk being trafficked, coerced into sex, or attacked when they venture out in search of food, water or work.

South Sudan’s economy, already among the world’s most fragile, is under great strain. Ranked next to last on the UN’s Human Development Index, South Sudan’s nominal GDP per capita is higher only than Burundi’s. Oil accounts for most of its revenue, but production is at risk. South Sudan has Sub-Saharan Africa’s third-largest oil reserves, but must export oil through Sudan. The civil war in Sudan threatens to disrupt the flow.

Sudan’s war has displaced people and weapons into South Sudan. Many who’d fled to Sudan during South Sudan’s last civil war have now come back to a country that can’t meet their needs. The two wars are linked. Reports suggest the South Sudanese government may be collaborating with Sudan’s rebel militia, the Rapid Support Forces, to target SPLA-IO members and White Army fighters near the border.

Uganda’s military presence raises serious concerns. South Sudan is under a UN arms embargo that prohibits foreign military support. Uganda’s intervention violates this and further complicates a volatile situation. Unlike past interventions, this one comes at a time of broader regional instability, with conflicts ongoing in Ethiopia and Eritrea as well as Sudan, raising fears of spillover.

Charting a path to peace

Multiple mediation efforts have been launched, including by a former Kenyan prime minister and an African Union ‘Council of the Wise’, a delegation of regional representatives who went to South Sudan to try to ease tensions. Local church leaders and western diplomats in Juba are also calling for peace. The UN maintains a peacekeeping presence and its head has repeatedly urged South Sudanese leaders to put down their weapons and prioritise people’s needs. Human rights mechanisms, including the UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan, have raised the alarm and urged immediate action to protect civilians and uphold the peace agreement. Yet leaders continue to ignore calls for dialogue.

Fourteen years after winning independence, South Sudan’s leaders can either continue down the path of cyclical violence or make the difficult but necessary choices needed for peace.

It will take more than the signing of an agreement to break this pattern: it demands genuine political will to address the conflict’s underlying causes, from power-sharing and resource distribution to ethnic divisions and historical grievances. Political leaders must see beyond short-term calculations and recognise that their country’s survival depends on democratic and inclusive governance.

The international community bears responsibility too. Sustained diplomatic pressure and conditional support are needed to incentivise full implementation of the peace agreement. Accountability for past atrocities mustn’t be sacrificed for temporary stability.

Ultimately, South Sudan’s future lies with its people. Civil society’s resilience, even in the face of repeated trauma, still offers hope that peace is possible.

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