CIVICUS speaks about an escalating crisis in South Sudan with Edmund Yakani, Executive Director of Community Empowerment for Progress Organization (CEPO) South Sudan. Founded by university students and graduates, CEPO works to promote peace, human rights, the rule of law, democratic governance and sustainable livelihoods in conflict-affected communities.

Fighting between government forces and opposition groups is escalating in South Sudan. On 27 March, Vice President Riek Machar was placed under house arrest over his alleged role in the violence, deepening tensions with President Salva Kiir. This arrest violates the 2018 peace deal that halted a devastating civil war, and Machar’s party has called it a coup. Government forces have reportedly targeted opposition figures and communities from ethnicities other than the biggest ethnic group, the Dinka. Uganda’s military intervention in support of Kiir threatens to draw neighbouring countries into the conflict.

What sparked the current violence?

At its core, this crisis stems from the ongoing power struggle between President Kiir and Vice President Machar, the primary signatories to the 2018 Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan. This accord attempted to end years of civil war by establishing a power-sharing transitional government. However, deep-seated tensions between the two leaders never eased.

The situation deteriorated recently when Kiir accused Machar of orchestrating violence in Nasir, Upper Nile state, and subsequently had him detained. Machar’s party rejected these accusations and declared the peace agreement void. Since this confrontation, the political climate has rapidly worsened. The risk of a return to full-scale war is very high. It’s only a matter of time before the situation completely unravels.

How do ethnic tensions fuel this conflict?

Despite being home to over 60 ethnic groups, South Sudan’s political landscape is dominated by the Dinka and the Nuer, the two largest communities. The fact that the president and vice president come from these rival groups has transformed political disagreements into ethnic conflicts, feeding a cycle of mistrust and violence.

The recent crisis in Nasir erupted when the White Army, a Nuer militia, took control of the area and overran the national army’s base. These ethnic divisions continue to dictate political loyalties and military action, making it dangerously easy for localised incidents to trigger nationwide violence.

What are the implications of Uganda’s involvement?

Uganda has a history of military intervention in South Sudan. Despite public denials, Kiir has again requested Ugandan military support. Ugandan troops are reportedly being paid to fight the White Army and support government forces.

This involvement violates a United Nations arms embargo and significantly heightens regional tensions. It undermines South Sudan’s sovereignty while threatening stability throughout East Africa. Should other neighbouring countries begin taking sides, the crisis could rapidly expand beyond South Sudan’s borders.

What are the prospects of an election being held in 2026?

The election has faced repeated postponements, from 2022 to 2024 and now to 2026. There’s little confidence this third deadline will be met. The critical obstacle remains the failure to unify armed forces under one central command, a key provision in the peace deal.

Without military unification, an election would likely intensify existing divisions rather than heal them. Nevertheless, an election remains the only viable path out of the crisis, provided it is conducted in a credible and inclusive way. Failing that, South Sudan urgently requires a national dialogue to form a caretaker government and prevent a catastrophic return to full-blown conflict.