The violence that rocked New Caledonia last month has subsided. French President Emmanuel Macron has recently announced the suspension of changes to voting rights in the Pacific island nation, annexed by his country in 1853. His attempt to introduce these changes sparked weeks of violence in which several people died.

Colonial legacies

Scattered around the world, including in South America, the Caribbean Sea and the Indian and Pacific Oceans, are 13 territories that were once part of the French Empire but haven’t achieved independence. Their status varies. Some – such as French Guiana, Guadeloupe and Martinique – have the same legal standing as French mainland regions. Others have more autonomy. New Caledonia is in a category of its own: since the 1998 Nouméa Accord, named after New Caledonia’s capital, France agreed to a gradual transfer of power. Currently, France still determines New Caledonia’s defence, economic, electoral, foreign and migration policies.

The Accord came in response to a rising independence movement led by Kanak people, the country’s Indigenous inhabitants. Kanaks make up around 40 per cent of the population, with the rest being people of European descent, including those born in New Caledonia and more recent arrivals from mainland France, as well as smaller groups of people of Asian, Oceanian and mixed heritage. Kanaks experienced severe discrimination under French rule, and for a period were confined to reservations, with the territory used as a penal colony.

An independence movement formed after a fresh wave of Europeans arrived in the 1970s to work in the nickel-mining industry. New Caledonia is the world’s fourth-largest nickel producer. It has an estimated 25 per cent of global deposits of the metal, a key ingredient in stainless steel production and, increasingly, in electric vehicle batteries. The nickel boom highlighted the divide in economic opportunities. Unrest lead to worsening violence that was eventually addressed by the Nouméa Accord.

Communities living close to the mines have long suffered environmental impacts. Now, a downturn in the country’s nickel industry has deepened economic strife, exacerbating the poverty, inequality and unemployment many Kanaks experience. Today, around a third of Kanak people live in poverty compared to nine per cent of non-Kanaks, while only eight per cent of Kanaks hold a university degree compared to 54 per cent of people with European connections.

Multiple referendums

The Accord created an unusual voting structure, with different electoral rolls for voting in mainland France, including for the French president and parliament, and for voting in New Caledonian elections and referendums. For these, the roll is frozen and only people who lived in the country in 1998 and their children can vote. These limitations were intended to give Kanak people a greater say in the three independence referendums provided for in the Accord. The restriction of the franchise was approved by the European Court of Human Rights on the grounds that the country was going through a transitional phase as part of a process of self-determination.

Referendums took place in 2018, 2020 and 2021, and the pro-independence camp lost every time. The 2020 vote was close, with around 47 per cent in favour of independence. But the December 2021 referendum was held amid a boycott organised by pro-independence parties, which called for the vote to be postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic: an outbreak began in September 2021, prompting the authorities to impose a lockdown and curfew. This pandemic wave left 280 people dead, most of them Kanak. Independence campaigners complained that the vote impinged on traditional Kanak mourning rituals, making it impossible to campaign in Indigenous communities.

Almost 97 per cent of those who voted rejected independence, but the boycott meant only around 44 per cent of eligible voters voted, compared to past turnouts of over 80 per cent.

France viewed this referendum as marking the completion of the Nouméa Accord. Macron made clear he considered the issue settled and appointed anti-independence people to key positions. The independence movement insisted that the vote, imposed by France against its wishes, wasn’t valid and another should be held.

Since the Accord was agreed, the far right has risen to prominence in France, as shown at the last presidential election and the recent European Parliament elections. French politics and its politicians have become more racist, with mainstream parties, including Macron’s, tacking rightwards in response to the growing popularity of the far-right National Rally party. On the other side of the world, the ripple effect can be seen in growing polarisation. As French politicians have promoted a narrow understanding of national identity, New Caledonia’s anti-independence movement has become more strident and emboldened.

At the same time, China’s push for closer ties with Pacific island countries has raised Oceania’s strategic importance. The US government and its allies, including France, have responded by paying renewed attention to a region they’d long neglected. France may be less willing to tolerate independence than before, particularly given the growing demand for electric vehicles.

State of emergency

The immediate cause of the protests was the French government’s plan to extend the franchise to anyone who has lived in New Caledonia for more than 10 years. For the independence movement, this was a unilateral departure from the Nouméa Accord’s principles and a setback for prospects for decolonisation and self-determination. In a polarised country, only one camp – that opposed to independence – could welcome the move. Tens of thousands of people took part in protests against the change, approved by the French National Assembly but pending final confirmation.

On 13 May, clashes between pro-independence protesters and security forces led to riots. Rioters burned down hundreds of buildings in Nouméa, including many public buildings and businesses associated with the non-Indigenous population. The international airport was closed. Communities set up barricades and people formed informal defence groups to protect their neighbourhoods. A high level of gun ownership made fatalities sadly inevitable, and eight people are reported to have died.

France declared a state of emergency and brought in around 3,000 troops to suppress the violence, a move many in civil society criticised as heavy-handed. French authorities also banned TikTok. It was the first time a European Union country has made such a move, potentially setting a dangerous precedent. French human rights groups filed a legal challenge in response.

Dialogue needed

Macron, who paid a brief visit once violence had subsided, has said the electoral changes will be suspended to allow for dialogue. His decision to gamble on early parliamentary elections in France in the wake of his European election defeat has bought him some time.

This time should be used to build bridges and address the evident fact that many Kanak people don’t feel listened to. This goes beyond the question of the franchise. There are deep and unaddressed problems of economic and social exclusion. Many of those involved in violence were young, unemployed Kanaks who feel life has little to offer them} and don’t necessarily see themselves as represented by established Kanak leaders.

As a consequence of recent developments, New Caledonia is now more divided than it’s been in decades. The question of independence hasn’t been settled. It didn’t simply go away with the third, disputed referendum. Many Kanak people feel betrayed. For them, before there can be any extension of the franchise, France must agree to complete the unfinished process of decolonisation.

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