CIVICUS discusses Honduras’ 30 November presidential election, with no winner yet declared, with members of Expediente Público, the investigative journalism programme of the think tank Expediente Abierto, which focuses on issues of democracy, government transparency and human rights.

With 99.4 per cent of votes counted, Nasry Asfura of the National Party leads with 40.5 per cent, ahead of Salvador Nasralla of the Liberal Party, on 39.2 per cent. The counting system collapsed repeatedly over several days, with ballots from around 3,000 polling stations showing inconsistencies that require a special recount. The Liberal Party and the current ruling party, Libertad y Refundación (Libre), whose candidate came third, have claimed electoral fraud and obstructed the verification process. The National Electoral Council (CNE) hasn’t yet been able to declare a winner as the legal deadline approaches.

Why was there so much tension around this election?

This election marked the end of Libre’s time in office. Libre is the party led by former President Manuel Zelaya Rosales, who was ousted in 2009 and in a way returned to power through the 2022 electoral victory of his wife, Xiomara Castro. It’s a leftist party that has maintained political alliances with the governments of China, Cuba, Nicaragua, Russia and Venezuela, contributing to deep political polarisation.

Tensions intensified when, seeing that polls did not favour their presidential candidate, Rixi Moncada, Libre’s leaders began to raise suspicions of fraud allegedly orchestrated by the CNE. This narrative was reinforced following the release of preliminary results, which placed Moncada in third place with just over 19 per cent of the vote.

Despite the tense atmosphere, election day was largely peaceful and orderly, and turnout was significant: around 3.7 million people voted out of a total of 6.2 million registered voters. However, the crisis subsequently deepened when the results transmission system suffered serious failures that paralysed the counting process for over 24 hours, creating considerable uncertainty.

In this context, the narrow difference between Asfura and Nasralla turned each review of electoral records into a new source of political conflict. Libre and the Liberal Party claimed electoral fraud and demanded the annulment of the election, alleging irregularities in the results transmission system. To determine the winner, the CNE announced a special recount of around 3,000 polling stations with inconsistencies in their records, but it has not been possible to begin this process. The National Party has denounced Libre and the Liberal Party for deliberately obstructing the special recount by refusing to accredit their representatives to the Special Verification and Recount Boards. Meanwhile, Libre has called for protests and roadblocks to reject the preliminary results, and the 30-day legal deadline for declaring a winner is approaching without the CNE being able to complete the process.

What role did election observers play?

International observers, particularly missions sent by the European Union and the Organisation of American States, together with national networks such as Observadores Electorales de Honduras 2025, have played a key role in ensuring the transparency of the process and demanding clarity in the vote count.

Their preliminary reports agree that there’s no evidence of electoral fraud, although there have been serious administrative and technical failures.

They have urgently requested that the vote recount be completed to allow for a credible declaration of results. They also highlighted delays in the opening of polling stations, internal divisions in the CNE, which delayed key administrative decisions such as the awarding of contracts for the transmission of results, the politicisation of the Public Prosecutor’s Office, which opened investigations against a CNE councillor and two magistrates of the Electoral Court, threatening to imprison them, and the role of the armed forces, whose chief demanded that the CNE grant him access to the presidential results on election day.

How did Donald Trump influence the election?

Trump’s public support for Asfura, accompanied by threats to cut economic aid if he didn’t win, may have mobilised part of the electorate. Honduras has close ties with the USA and a large diaspora in the country, which amplifies the political impact of such messages. Libre denounced Trump’s statements as direct interference in Honduras’ internal affairs.

In addition, Trump’s pardon of former President Juan Orlando Hernández, convicted of drug trafficking in the USA, was used politically by both sides: the ruling party tried to present it as a sign of international support for the right wing, while the National Party incorporated it into its narrative of external support.

What’s the current situation with the vote count and what are the possible scenarios?

The conflict centres on the recount of ballots in polling stations with inconsistent records. These represent around 500,000 votes, which will be decisive for the final result. This process has been blocked by protests organised by Libre, which have prevented access to the CNE’s computing centre.

Moncada and Zelaya maintain their discourse about an ‘electoral coup’ and demand the annulment of the election. On top of this, there’s pressure from the Liberal Party and political negotiations aimed at preventing a victory for the National Party. The law stipulates that the official declaration must be issued before 30 December. If this does not happen, the decision would be in the hands of the National Congress, currently dominated by Libre, which could deepen the institutional crisis. To prevent further democratic deterioration and restore confidence, it’s essential that the CNE complete the recount with complete transparency and issue a credible declaration of results.

Meanwhile, multiple potential scenarios cause deep concern and uncertainty. Many view a potential victory for Asfura as the continuation of a model marked by corruption, impunity and links to drug trafficking, which could maintain and exacerbate the hostile environment for activists and journalists.

The possibility of a Nasralla victory raises expectations due to his anti-corruption rhetoric, although his ability to push through reforms would depend on complex political agreements in a fragmented Congress.

In any case, it’s important to remember that the human rights crisis in Honduras is structural and will not be resolved by a simple change of government.