CIVICUS discusses the results of 2024 presidential elections and the imminent inauguration of a leftist government in Uruguay with Alicia Lissidini, professor and researcher at the School of Politics and Government of the National University of San Martín in Argentina.

With a turnout of almost 90 per cent, the second round of the Uruguayan presidential election took place in a climate of respect and constructive debate, in stark contrast to the polarisation that has recently characterised other countries in the region. The campaign revolved around issues of economic development, employment and personal security. With the victory of the Frente Amplio over the ruling centre-right coalition on 1 March, the left is coming back to power after one term in opposition.

What were the main issues and the tone of the campaign?

As in 2019, and as in many Latin American countries, security was the main campaign issue. Uruguay has a high homicide rate linked to drug trafficking: 11.2 per 100,000 inhabitants, twice that of Chile. The government of Luis Lacalle Pou, of the centre-right National Party, implemented punitive measures that raised the incarceration rate to a record 458 per 100,000 people, without any significant improvement in security.

On election day, the ruling coalition pushed through a plebiscite on a proposal to allow night raids to combat drug trafficking. The measure was supported by just over 39 per cent of the electorate, well short of the 50 per cent required. The result was in line with other ‘strong-arm’ proposals that also failed, such as one in 2019 that proposed the creation of a National Guard. Uruguayans tend to reject proposals they associate with the legacy of the 1973-1984 dictatorship.

Other prominent campaign issues were the low secondary school completion rate, which is below 50 per cent, unemployment, low wages and child poverty, which the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) estimates at 30 per cent. But the campaign lacked depth: structural problems and other issues high on social movements’ agendas, such as gender-based violence, homelessness, prison conditions and access to clean water, were largely ignored. The left also failed to highlight these issues, despite its historical links with social movements.

In the runoff election, the focus was on Yamandú Orsi, the Frente Amplio’s now president-elect, and his ability to govern, rather than on national problems. The mandated presidential debate lacked any real interaction between the candidates, who avoided any confrontation.

What role did social media play?

In Uruguay, electoral decisions are not so much influenced by social media because the right-left axis continues to structure the vote ideologically. This was a traditional campaign in which social media played a secondary role. Following its defeat in 2019, the Frente Amplio prioritised direct contact with citizens, while the National Party bet on continuity and the leadership of President Lacalle Pou.

There have been fake news and aggression, but they have not polarised the public debate, as happened in Argentina or Brazil. Although there are far-right groups, they remain marginal, as shown by the results of Cabildo Abierto, with 2.3 per cent of the vote, and Identidad Soberana, with two per cent. This reflects a majority commitment to democracy and its institutions.

Why was turnout so high?

Uruguay has the highest voter turnout in Latin America. It was almost 90 per cent In the October and November votes, and young people voting for the first time showed up at a rate of 92.5 per cent in the run-off.

This is due both to penalties for not voting and a political culture that values participation and recognises the legitimacy of electoral processes. According to the Latinobarómetro survey, 60 per cent of people trust the electoral court, compared to only 18 per cent in Bolivia and 30 per cent in Argentina.

Even in the 2024 primaries, where voting is not compulsory, almost 36 per cent of the electorate participated, a high figure compared to countries such as Chile, where it does not exceed 25 per cent.

What are the expectations of the left's return to power?

The Frente Amplio is the party of choice for young people and women. But although the majority voted for change, no radical changes are expected. During its previous mandates, between 2005 and 2020, the Frente Amplio maintained economic stability and responsible fiscal management, inspiring confidence in its managerial abilities.

It campaigned on a moderate agenda, but its programme includes commitments to improve security, reduce poverty and increase wages. The healthcare system, with problems exacerbated by the pandemic, is another priority. An increase in the science budget and the strengthening of wage councils to improve working conditions are also expected.

The new government is expected to adopt a more participatory style of governance, with greater involvement of social organisations in decision-making. While the previous government passed laws such as the Urgent Consideration Law with little debate, the Frente Amplio is expected to promote more deliberation and consensus in parliament. It’s expected to consolidate a model of a country that has so far resisted polarisation and the advance of the far right.