When Ecuador went to the polls this year, much seemed at stake. The country was experiencing one of the worst pandemic-induced health crises in Latin America and an economic crisis that manifested itself in rising unemployment and a staggering increase of the ranks of the poor. Not surprisingly, the country also faced a crisis of governance, with an outgoing government whose approval ratings were plummeting amid revelations of corruption that skyrocketed under the pandemic.

A change was on the cards. For almost 15 years, Rafael Correa – the two-term president who ruled for a decade until 2017 – had been at the heart of Ecuadorian politics. These days, Correa lives in de facto exile in Belgium, under the spectre of corruption charges at home.

In 2018, President Lenín Moreno, Correa’s chosen successor turned adversary, called a referendum to reverse the indefinite re-election clause his predecessor had introduced, closing the door on Correa’s potential return to the presidential palace. With the backing of 68 per cent of voters, the two-term limit was reinstated. Correa, out of the game, promoted left-wing economist Andrés Arauz as his candidate. Moreno opted not to stand again.

Five days before the 11 April presidential run-off vote, the race was too close to call. Some polls placed Arauz a few percentage points ahead; others gave a similar advantage to the challenger, right-wing business leader and previously twice-defeated candidate Guillermo Lasso.

Fractures on the left

In the first round of voting on 7 February, three political groupings that place themselves on the left jointly received around two thirds of the vote: Correa’s Union for Hope Alliance (UNES), with Arauz as its candidate, the Democratic Left party, led by Xavier Hervas, and the Pachakutik Plurinational Unity Movement (MUPP), the political arm of the Indigenous movement, led by Yaku Pérez, winning much of its support from young people.

Arauz progressed to the run-off with 32.7 per cent of the vote, while Lasso came some way behind with 19.7 per cent. A united left candidate would surely have won comfortably in the run-off vote, but the defeated left candidates did not rally behind Arauz. With Pérez a fraction of a percentage point from replacing Lasso as run-off candidate, MUPP and the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities called foul play and demanded a recount. The Democratic Left offered no endorsement of Arauz, and Hervas said he would vote for Lasso.

Key campaign promises from Arauz included commitments to make the wealthy pay more taxes, strengthen consumer protections, public banking and local credit, and withdraw from agreements with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) implemented by Moreno. The programme of economic neoliberal measures implemented by Moreno’s government as part of its IMF deal had continued even under the pandemic. Mass protests led by Indigenous communities in 2019 forced the government to back down on a move to end fuel subsidies and cut public services.

But many on the left contrasted the pro-poor positioning of Correa’s party with its track record of implementing harsh economic policies and promoting extractive projects with close ties to Chinese investors, often impacting adversely and disproportionately on Indigenous people. They saw the movement’s populist, anti-imperialist, socialist and environmentally friendly discourse as being at odds with its actions in government. Others condemned the restriction of civic space, the accumulation of personal power and the mismanagement of public funds that they viewed as rampant during successive administrations, particularly under Correa.

These conflicts and contradictions, on top of the candidates’ superficial discourse, based on advertising formulas rather than actual ideas, made for a confusing picture. In this context, civil society groups worked to promote informed voting, trying to help voters understand their options by analysing the candidates’ trajectories and party programmes and fostering opportunities for political debate.

A first round fought tooth and nail

As a result of Pérez’s fraud claims, it took two weeks to confirm the first-round winners. A partial recount was held, although Pérez presented little evidence of electoral fraud. The United Nations joined the vote recount request and called for ‘transparency and promptness’, while Indigenous groups marched for several days through the country to reach the capital, Quito. As they protested outside the National Electoral Council (CNE), they were dispersed with teargas and water cannon, allegedly after protesters tried to tear down the security fences and cut the barbed wire that had been set up to block access to CNE headquarters.

In addition, the Comptroller General announced plans to audit the information system used in the first round, a move that both Arauz and Lasso called anti-democratic and a threat to electoral independence, since the Comptroller General’s Office doesn’t have jurisdiction over elections.

A fragmented National Assembly

Political fragmentation was also reflected in the makeup of the National Assembly elected at the same time as the first-round presidential vote. This saw huge turnover: out of 42 Assembly members standing for re-election, only 13 kept their seats.

As the political tide changed, UNES lost 25 seats and its majority, but remained the biggest party, with 49 of 137 seats. MUPP came second, jumping from four to 27 seats. This appears to mark the burgeoning of a progressive Indigenous force on the left – one that at last is taking climate change seriously.

Although its leader would eventually win the presidency, CREO secured only 12 seats, down from 34, while its ally the Social Christian Party increased its share by three, up to 18.

A change, but what kind?

The second-round polls might have been tight, but on 11 April the outcome was clear: Lasso won with 52.4 per cent of valid votes cast compared to Arauz’s 47.6 per cent. The line of succession from Correa was broken. But there was also a strong signal of disaffection: 15 per cent of voters cast a blank vote.

Ecuador would now be ruled by an openly right-of-centre president, albeit one lacking a particularly strong mandate and without a National Assembly majority.

For Arauz, his association with Correa ended up being a liability: while in the first round this meant core Correa supporters backed him, in the run-off he could not broaden his appeal, even among voters on the left.

In contrast, Lasso likely benefited from the votes of some of the Indigenous people who would have voted for Pérez. To appeal to these voters and to undecided young people, he adopted some of Pérez’s positions and softened his conservative angles, positioning as friendlier towards women’s and LGBTQI+ people’s rights. The conservative business leader even embraced TikTok to try to reach out to young people.

President Lasso took office in May, as did the newly elected members of the National Assembly, which elected MUPP’s Guadalupe Llori as its president. Llori became the first Indigenous woman to head Ecuador’s legislative body.

But for all this political shuffle, the situation on the ground remained unchanged, characterised by protests against extractive projects and the systematic criminalisation of Indigenous human rights defenders and organisations, a long-term and systemic issue in Ecuador.

These issues were highlighted on 18 October, when several Indigenous communities from Ecuador’s Amazon region filed a lawsuit against the government, seeking to halt the president’s plans to deregulate the oil and gas industry and double oil extraction, calling this ‘a policy of death’. Hundreds of Indigenous people arrived in Quito on the day the lawsuit was filed, after long journeys from their communities deep in the Amazon rainforest.

Conflict between Indigenous communities and mining companies continued to escalate in several locales. On 2 August, the Alliance for Human Rights issued an alert over the presence of military and police in the rural parish of La Merced de Buenos Aires, apparently in response to community resistance to mining.

Protests go national

By mid-September, localised protests had once again gone national. On 15 September, thousands took to the streets of Quito to protest against government policies. Those taking part included labour unions, students, teachers and rural workers’ movements and Indigenous communities. Protesters demanded that education reforms be implemented and rejected a proposed labour law. As one union leader put it, they urged the government to listen to the people instead of listening to businesspeople, bankers and the IMF. The following day, the Minister of Government met with union representatives to initiate a dialogue.

More protests took place on 26 and 27 October, convened by Indigenous organisations and social movements. Protesters blocked roads in five provinces and clashes between protesters and security forces were reported in Quito. Although protests were mostly peaceful, police used teargas to disperse a group of protesters allegedly engaged in vandalism; the Ombudsperson’s office also reported that teargas was used against protesters in Imbabura province, and said it was following cases of Indigenous leaders detained in Cotopaxi province and of a journalist attacked by police while covering protests. Government authorities reported that 18 people were detained for blocking roads.

In response, President Lasso urged Ecuadorians to reject the protests on the grounds that they were bad for business. He used a similar argument, unsuccessfully, with the National Assembly, which sent back his pack of neoliberal economic measures without even debating it. The IMF loan he renegotiated depends, as it usually does, on these measures that boost the private sector, limit labour rights and increase the tax burden.

But Lasso does not seem to be winning the argument. His popularity ratings are collapsing, and he was named in the Pandora Papers investigation into the offshore wealth of elites. He faces claims that he illegally failed to divest offshore holdings before starting his presidential campaign and lied about his assets, and is under investigation by a congressional commission and the attorney-general, with impeachment a possibility; he has refused to cooperate. Lasso faces the accusation that he is trying to raise taxes while having avoided them himself.

At loggerheads with the Assembly, the spectre of a mechanism known as ‘cross-death’ began to hover. This allows the president to dissolve the Assembly but requires that both legislative and presidential elections follow; Lasso could well lose a second election. Protracted stalemate may be the alternative.

Either way, Lasso has undoubtedly very quickly disappointed many who voted for him, and with youthful and Indigenous alternatives rising, there’s likely more change ahead.