Ahead of Bolivia’s runoff presidential election, CIVICUS discusses the political landscape with Gabriela Keseberg Dávalos, a Bolivian-German political scientist.

Bolivia’s 17 August presidential election, held in a context of economic crisis and political mistrust, signals the end of 20 years of rule by Evo Morales’s leftist Movement for Socialism (MAS). The shock result saw Rodrigo Paz Pereira, who’d never polled above 10 per cent, win 32 per cent of the vote, followed by Jorge ‘Tuto’ Quiroga with 27 per cent. They’ll contest Bolivia’s first-ever runoff vote on 19 October.

What explains the results of the 17 August vote?

Around 15 per cent of undecided voters, plus many who changed their minds at the last minute or who polls hadn’t accounted for, ended up tipping the balance. While the results were not as expected, they do respond to a coherent electoral logic. Bolivia wanted change, but not a radical shift. The majority rejected MAS, but were not prepared to vote for a right-wing alternative. Rodrigo Paz positioned himself as the middle-ground candidate.

MAS’s collapse is due to a combination of economic, political and social factors. The economic crisis was decisive. Bolivians are deeply pragmatic: they vote with their wallets. Inflation on basic goods is currently close to 40 per cent.

Added to this are shortages of dollars and fuel, falling production and unemployment. These issues particularly affect those in trade and transportation and the emerging middle class that originated during the MAS boom years.

We must also consider political attrition and internal struggles. MAS is no longer a unified movement. It has fragmented into three factions: the ‘Evistas’, loyal to Morales, the ‘Arcistas’, followers of outgoing president Luis Arce, and the ‘Androniquistas’, supporters of the young Senate President, Andrónico Rodríguez, who launched his own presidential campaign with a new party, the Popular Alliance. These divisions have weakened MAS and undermined its credibility.

Corruption also played a central role. Cases of drug trafficking, illegal mining, illicit enrichment and smuggling eroded public confidence. Bolivians perceive the state as absent, corrupt and incapable of controlling forest fires and halting deforestation. This has a serious impact on public health and causes internal displacement.

However, perhaps the most decisive factor was Morales himself. His refusal to make way for new generations of leaders ultimately destroyed MAS from within. Having begun as an unconventional Indigenous leader, he became a caudillo – a strongarm leader – obsessed with maintaining power. To cling to power, Morales exploited legal loopholes, manipulated institutions and weakened democracy.

What do the candidates propose?

Many took it for granted that the runoff would be between Quiroga and another challenger, Samuel Doria Medina, meaning that Paz’s proposals didn’t receive enough attention. Now he’s in the runoff, his plans and his vice-presidential candidate – a former police officer who’s a strongly divisive figure – are under greater scrutiny.

Paz now represents the moderate, pragmatic centre-left option on economic issues. He advocates social progress without radicalism. His sober and conciliatory style has attracted voters seeking change who fear both right-wing neoliberalism and MAS’s authoritarianism. Paz managed to win support from voters disenchanted with MAS and those who never supported it.

In the more conservative, business-oriented lowlands, support for traditional candidates such as Quiroga and Doria Medina predominated. Quiroga embodies the old political guard: he was vice president and interim president and promotes structural reforms. On economic issues, he proposes an International Monetary Fund bailout package, a measure that strikes fear among poor people given the experience of economic austerity measures in the 1980s and 1990s, but inspires confidence in the business community. His most striking proposal is to grant every Bolivian citizen a ‘popular property title’ worth US$1,500 as a symbolic share in natural resources and state-owned companies.

Who do you think will win?

The outcome is uncertain, with both candidates having virtually equal chances of winning. The historical division between eastern and western regions of Bolivia is once again becoming apparent: Santa Cruz and the eastern region are leaning towards Quiroga, while Paz is gaining support from the western altiplano and part of the urban middle class.

The outcome will depend largely on disenchanted MAS voters, who have become the swing voters, and on the candidates’ ability to win over the eastern regions. The balance will not be easy to achieve. If Paz can convince voters he represents moderate and reliable change, he will have the advantage. However, Quiroga could prevail if he manages to convey a message of economic security without reawakening old fears. To win over the electorate, both candidates will need to present tangible and credible plans. So far, there has been plenty of ‘what’, but not enough ‘how’.

Just a few days after the first round, the campaign has already begun to take on an increasingly confrontational tone, with accusations flying and rhetoric growing harsher. Social media disinformation and AI are playing a key role.

What are the main challenges the next president will face?

Whoever takes office will inherit a divided country with an economy in crisis and a fractured political system. The challenges will be numerous and complex.

The immediate priority will be to stabilise the economy by controlling inflation, ensuring fuel and foreign currency supplies and restoring international confidence. To do so, they will have to address one of their biggest challenges: achieving political unity.

With a fragmented Congress, it will be necessary to negotiate and form broad coalitions, and the role of the vice president will be pivotal in this process.

Another vital factor in ensuring governability will be to strengthen social cohesion and promote reconciliation by rebuilding links between east and west, and between the countryside and cities.

In the medium and long term, the new government will need to rebuild institutions. This will involve breaking with MAS’s authoritarian legacy, restoring judicial independence, ending political persecution and professionalising the foreign service by employing career diplomats.

The environmental agenda must not be overlooked. The new government must halt deforestation and fires, which have serious economic, health and social consequences. Bolivia is one of the most biodiverse countries in the world, and this must be preserved.