CIVICUS discusses Somalia’s possible move towards direct elections with Mahad Wasuge, Executive Director of Somali Public Agenda, a civil society organisation that works on public policy and administration research.

In August, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud struck an agreement with opposition figures to introduce direct elections for federal lawmakers, potentially changing the country’s traditional clan-based power structures. However, with under nine months remaining in the current government’s mandate and widespread opposition resistance, the outcome of a potential democratic change remains highly uncertain.

What changes would the new system introduce?

Under the clan-based system, lawmakers are chosen indirectly through clan delegates, not by direct vote. Under the new system, people would directly elect members of parliament, based on the principle of one person, one vote. This would offer many Somalis the first chance to participate in a national election.

The process began with a political agreement in 2023 and a constitutional amendment to give the system legal backing in 2024. The National Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission was tasked with managing elections at all levels: local, state and federal. However, this centralised structure is controversial. Some opposition leaders and state officials argue it concentrates too much power in the hands of the federal government.

The reform has significant limitations. The clan representation of Parliament’s House of the People would not change. Its 275 seats would still be allocated according to a traditional formula that divides representation between Somalia’s major clans, meaning clan identity will remain the foundation of representation. While direct voting could give people a stronger sense of involvement, we won’t be transitioning to a fully competitive, party-based democracy.

How likely is the reform to be implemented?

Implementation is uncertain. Local council elections, which are legally required to happen first, still haven’t happened, and with less than nine months left in the current government’s mandate, time is running out.

Local elections have been delayed for several reasons, including parallel negotiations with political stakeholders who have questions about the overall electoral roadmap. Most key opposition figures, including former presidents and prime ministers, are mainly interested in federal elections, which are currently managed by the National Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission, which manages all elections. National politicians want a level playing field for competition at a federal level, with federal elections managed by an impartial body, and prefer to leave the management of local and state-level elections in states’ hands.

Security is also a key obstacle to direct local council elections in many districts. On top of security concerns, the basic infrastructure for elections – voter registration, registered political associations participating in the process and voter education – is not ready yet, so it would be difficult to even pilot local council elections in the capital, Mogadishu, in the next few months. Another obstacle is that donors are reluctant to support a process that does not seem inclusive and participatory.

Civil society, particularly think tanks such as Somali Public Agenda, has produced publications and convened several dialogues on the planned elections and amendments made to the federal constitution. Given the limited time left, civil society’s priority focus is exploring how to conduct indirect elections or limited direct elections that reduce corruption and the influence of executive leaders at federal and member state levels.

What are the prospects for Somalia's democratic future?

Without broad political consensus and with such limited time, Somalia will likely fall back on indirect, clan-based elections. This means democracy will remain out of reach of most Somalis and those in power will continue to manipulate the system to maintain control.

Indirect elections are familiar to the political elite, while direct ones are not. If the current process fails, nothing will change for people on the ground, as the locations where the government now wants to conduct elections have not seen elections in over 50 years.

Genuine democratic change will require more than top-level agreements: it will take years of institution-building, political will and an inclusive process. If the federal government could start working on an electoral process that is inclusive early on, we could take a few steps towards a democratic process that enables citizens to elect their leaders.