Politics is never completely domestic; regional effects exist. The current regional context is characterised by the erosion of democratic controls by both right-wing and left-wing populists, which has created a more permissive environment for authoritarian leaders to rise. These leaders often present themselves as saviours against supposedly corrupt elites entrenched in institutions and seek to concentrate power by weakening checks and balances. Costa Rica is not immune to these dynamics.

But its case is particularly concerning because it is a democracy that has been established since 1953. It wasn’t part of the wave of transitions to democracy of the 1980s, by which time it already had solid institutions, high levels of social investment and a development model that was a source of national pride. The triumph of a political project openly hostile to that model reflects the existence of accumulated discontent among large parts of the population.

The security crisis is undeniable. For decades, Costa Rica maintained low levels of violence compared to the rest of the region. However, since the pandemic, transnational organised crime has become more deeply entrenched, particularly in coastal areas such as Limón. In Europe, there have been repeated reports of Costa Rican export shipments contaminated with cocaine, raising questions about the effectiveness of customs controls.

Groups linked to Central American, Colombian and Mexican networks operate in Costa Rica, and contract killings have expanded, with a consequent increase in collateral victims. In 2025, as in 2024, Costa Rica recorded over 800 homicides, the highest figures in recent history.

In this context, the ‘iron fist’ rhetoric was central and effective in capitalising on public fear. The candidate presented El Salvador’s model as a reference, even though Costa Rica does not have an army, which limits the possibility of repressive dynamics such as those seen in other countries.

Despite the increase in homicides during the current government, budgets for the Judicial Investigation Agency, which is responsible for criminal investigations, were not adequately increased. Instead, the government withdrew specialised drug control forces from strategic areas, and officials held controversial meetings with people who were later arrested for drug-related crimes. Although the government announced the construction of a prison inspired by the Salvadoran model, doubts have been raised about the project’s budgetary and technical feasibility.

However, the main risk is that institutional controls and democratic guarantees will be eroded in the name of security. There have already been reports of the alleged use of state intelligence to intimidate public figures, and worrying signs of politicisation in police forces. During the campaign, Fernández defended the possibility of declaring a state of emergency to tackle insecurity, which would involve suspending fundamental freedoms. Throughout its democratic history, Costa Rica has never resorted to such a mechanism, not even during the pandemic.

Social mobilisation has been limited since the government of Carlos Alvarado Quesada, from 2018 to 2022, when a law was passed that severely restricted the right to strike, particularly affecting the public sector.

During the election campaign, ‘multicoloured caravans’ emerged, made up of various parties and social groups opposed to Chaves and Fernández. However, the enormous fragmentation – 20 parties competed in these elections – and the legal requirements for forming coalitions – including the need to agree a common plan and the distribution of positions and state funding – made it difficult to consolidate a broad opposition front.

As a result, Fernández set the agenda, and her election campaign left out issues critical to Costa Rica’s future. Concerns remain about issues such as the environmental crisis, given that the conservationist discourse that characterised Costa Rica has weakened over the past four years, while opportunities for extractive activities in protected areas have opened up. Education — historically the engine of Costa Rica’s development — also represents a major challenge due to reduced investment that threatens the model based on skilled human capital. An equal danger is posed by the crisis in the public health system, characterised by increasingly long waiting lists, the flight of specialists to the private sector and budgeted hospitals that are not being built.

Finally, in foreign policy, the shift towards alignment with the USA and the abandonment of the traditional multilateral diplomatic approach has gone virtually unnoticed. Costa Rica has aligned itself with other countries in the region with fundamentalist right-wing governments, such as Argentina and El Salvador.