When security forces in the city of Douala opened fire on protesters contesting Cameroon’s presidential election results, killing at least four people, they offered a glimpse of what likely lies ahead: more of the repression that has increasingly characterised Paul Biya’s 43 years in power. At 92, the world’s oldest and longest-serving head of state has just secured his eighth presidential term, denying any hopes of a democratic transition.

Official results announced on 27 October gave Biya 53.7 per cent of the vote in the 12 October election, with main challenger Issa Tchiroma Bakary on 35.2 per cent. The Constitutional Council that certified these results is made up exclusively of ruling party appointees.

Most Cameroonians have never known a president other than Biya, whose new seven-year term could see him still in office aged 99. Yet this very old man leads a youthful country: over 60 per cent of Cameroon’s 30 million people are 25 or under. For this young majority, Biya’s continuing rule offers little promise of improved economic prospects. There’s scant hope the government’s respect for civic freedoms will improve either.

An election designed for victory

While turnout in previous elections had declined as people saw little point in voting, this time it rose, suggesting some believed change could finally come. Recent years have seen an upsurge in young people registering to vote, with 2.7 million aged 20 to 35 now part of the electoral roll of around 8 million.

The problem for voters hoping to bring change was that the election was designed to give Biya every advantage. The authorities ensured Biya didn’t face the person who would have offered the biggest challenge. Elections Cameroon, the electoral body filled with former ruling party members and overseen by a Biya ally, excluded main opposition candidate Maurice Kamto, claiming one of the parties that nominated him was ineligible. Kamto was runner-up at the last election in 2018, held under similarly stage-managed conditions, when he claimed fraudulent practices had cheated him out of victory. His exclusion sparked protests, with security forces responding with arrests and teargas.

Even if the election had been allowed to proceed unfettered, there were structural barriers against change. Biya has long benefited from a divided and disorganised opposition, with speculation that the ruling party sponsors fake parties to sow disarray. Opposition attempts to unite behind a single opposition candidate failed, leaving Biya facing 11 opponents. Bakary, who anywhere else would be considered a senior figure at 76 years old, hardly offered a clean break: a long-time government minister, he only quit the cabinet to stand against Biya in June.

With all the cards stacked in his favour, Biya didn’t need to take the campaign seriously. While opposition candidates toured the country holding rallies to try to whip up support, he spent 10 days in Europe on private business, appearing at just one event and otherwise relying on an AI-generated campaign video. This was standard behaviour for Biya, who’s notorious for spending long spells in Switzerland. It’s suspected these absences are for health reasons, although it’s dangerous to discuss this in Cameroon: in October 2024, the government reacted to speculation Biya might be dead by banning discussion of the president’s health on national security grounds.

Intensifying repression

The government intensified civic space restrictions ahead of the vote. In April 2024, it banned two opposition coalitions, accusing them of meeting terrorist groups in the country’s Anglophone regions. Cameroon’s southwest and northwest areas, where the largely Francophone country’s Anglophone minority are concentrated, are home to an independence movement that in 2017 launched an ongoing conflict. Numerous civilian casualties and widespread displacement have resulted.

In July 2024, parliament postponed the legislative election, which was supposed to be held at the same time as the presidential vote, until March 2026. Opposition parties criticised this as a tactic to encourage apathy and discourage people from voting.

Authorities arrested several democracy and human rights activists in 2024 and 2025, including some simply for wearing t-shirts from a youth movement that calls for a new government. They also arrested several journalists, including for investigating corruption and poor governance, and suspended some media outlets. When journalists tried to mark World Press Freedom Day on 3 May 2024, police assaulted them and seized equipment.

In December 2024, activist Yérima Djoubaïrou Tchéboa was snatched from the streets and detained. He’s publicly called for a new president and accused the ruling party of electoral fraud. That same month, authorities ordered the suspension of four organisations, including the Network of Human Rights Defenders in Central Africa (REDHAC), a key human rights body.

The government accused the four of dubious financial practices, failure to properly account for funding and a lack of correct authorisations. Authorities then sealed REDHAC’s office to try to stop staff accessing it, summoned key staff to report to the police and placed its board chair Alice Nkom under investigation, reportedly on charges of financing terrorism and undermining state security, evidently due to her participation in a meeting to discuss peace in the Anglophone regions.

Another organisation, New Human Rights, was burgled in January 2025, with computers, data storage devices and documents stolen. This had been preceded by months of threats and intimidation.

Disputed results and deadly protests

Bakary claimed victory shortly after the vote, stating that his party’s monitoring of around 80 per cent of the electorate shows he won 55 per cent. The opposition accuses the government of ballot-stuffing and other irregularities. A coalition of eight local civil society groups also reported ballot-stuffing attempts, and observed that ballot papers were unequally distributed and dead people appeared on electoral lists.

The pliant Constitutional Council quickly dismissed several petitions alleging electoral malpractice before certifying the official results. But many Cameroonians have made clear they simply don’t believe Biya has won the vote, and have mobilised despite a protest ban. Hundreds of people, many of them young, took to the streets of Douala and other cities as it became clear Biya was claiming victory. As well as live ammunition, security forces used teargas and water cannon, and there were reports of internet access restrictions. The government pre-emptively arrested several opposition politicians and activists in the days ahead of the official announcement of the results, accusing them of plotting violent attacks.

Further violent clashes have come in the days since the results were announced. Bakary refuses to back down, and the government has threatened him with legal action for what it says is his role in organising ‘illegal’ protests and planning for insurrection.

Change delayed

The result has left Cameroon in stalemate, as major issues pile up unaddressed. The ongoing conflict means large parts of the disputed regions remain under the control of separatist forces, to the extent that an enforced election boycott – with punishments threatened for those who voted – caused lower turnout in conflict areas. There’s another conflict in the country’s north, with Islamist insurgents spilling over the border with Nigeria, causing some election-day violence.

Alongside conflict, the country faces fundamental infrastructure challenges, such as lack of access to electricity and clean water for many, and a deep corruption problem. Cameroon’s young population is largely unemployed.

Biya’s age and frequent absences leave Cameroon with a peculiar democratic deficit, where it’s unclear who truly controls the levers of power or who the ruling party will eventually choose to succeed him. Unable to bridge the gap between people’s expectations of democracy and the reality, the state can be expected to respond with continuing repression.

But across the world, including in Madagascar, Morocco, Nepal, and many other countries, a Generation Z-led protest wave has arisen to demand a fundamental redistribution of economic and political power. Cameroon’s young people can see what’s happening elsewhere. More protests seem certain, despite the threat of state violence, until the anachronism at the heart of Cameroon’s governance eventually becomes unbearable. Change has been postponed rather than prevented. The day will come when Cameroon’s young people are the ones making the decisions – and that day likely grows closer each time the government unleashes violent repression instead of listening to the voices of change.

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