The Trump administration has introduced several measures that have deepened uncertainty. The Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act, which was debated in Congress, would require proof of citizenship to register to vote. As the USA does not have a national ID system, in practice this means showing a passport, which many Americans do not have, or a birth certificate. For women who changed their name after marriage, it would also require a marriage certificate to reconcile the discrepancy. This risks making registration significantly harder and could prevent eligible people from voting simply because they can’t provide the right paperwork.

There have also been attempts to restrict mail-in voting. Currently, registered voters can cast their ballot by post, and some states accept ballots as long as they are mailed by election day, even if they arrive a few days later. Some people are concerned that this system opens the door to fraud and delays the counting of votes, even if this isn’t backed by evidence. The government is trying to change when ballots can arrive and still be accepted, fuelling distrust in a system that, by all accounts, works.

Beyond their effect on public confidence, implementing all these changes before the midterms would demand enormous resources from the state and local offices that run elections, and could cause real disruption on the ground.

One general concern among advocates and scholars is that declining trust in elections will lead to declining turnout, but this doesn’t seem to be holding, at least for now. People are expressing scepticism about elections but still turning out to vote. We recently saw this in Hungary, where high turnout ultimately led to Viktor Orbán’s defeat despite years of democratic backsliding. That is somewhat reassuring.

Where I do have serious concerns is around communities of colour. Our survey found that Black, Latino and Asian American people are worried about the presence of immigration enforcement officers at polling stations. They feared they or their families would be questioned or intimidated. Overall across the survey, Democrats were more likely to say that the presence of federal agents at or near the polls would give them less confidence in elections, while Republicans said it would give them more confidence.

Yes, the ‘winner-loser effect’ is well documented across democracies. People who supported the winning candidate or party tend to have much more confidence in the result than those on the losing side. That is not unique to the USA.

What is largely absent in the US is independent election observation, by domestic or international civil society organisations (CSOs), that assesses whether elections are free and fair and provides citizens with credible, non-partisan information. My research has shown that when observers certify an election as legitimate, it boosts public confidence; when they raise concerns, it lowers it. Either way, they provide an authoritative counterweight to political figures, who will always have an interest in shaping the narrative. In the current context, that independent source of information matters more than ever.

One important thing is building up domestic election observation. The Carter Center has long been a global leader in this field, but it historically did not observe elections in the country where it is headquartered. That has changed. It is now training election observers in Georgia, Montana and New Mexico, working to strengthen domestic CSOs doing observation. That is exactly the kind of independent, credible oversight the USA is missing.

The other thing I have been encouraged by is how much more integrated election-related civil society has become. What started as ad hoc exchanges between CSOs, election officials, lawyers, legislators and researchers has evolved into recurring convenings where people compare notes, share lessons and coordinate. It is something relatively new for US elections, and it has genuinely strengthened the field.

The challenges have never been greater, but civil society’s capacity to respond has also never been higher. If the USA can get through this moment, its democratic institutions will come out stronger than before.