CIVICUS discusses global democratic decline with Soheïla Comninos, consultant at the Stavros Niarchos Foundation Agora Institute at Johns Hopkins University and lead author alongside Scott Warren, Fellow at the Institute, of its new report, Global Democracy Theory of Change.

This publication is the first phase of a project exploring ongoing global democratic backsliding. It highlights several key challenges including rising populist authoritarianism, economic inequality, corruption, disinformation, public mistrust and shifting power dynamics. It examines why past democracy support efforts have fallen short and seeks to spark discussion on more effective ways to support democracy.

What are the main factors driving democratic decline globally?

According to our consultations with representatives from civil society, human rights activists, academics, intergovernmental organisations and funders from around the world, a major driver of democratic decline is growing mistrust in institutions and the political establishment. When people see political and business elites colluding for their own benefit – while they struggle to make ends meet and worry about their children’s future – it’s no surprise they start questioning whether democracy truly works for them. That frustration can lead to disengagement and the rise of populist leaders who claim to speak for the people but end up eroding democratic norms.

At the same time, the spread of disinformation has made it harder to engage in good-faith debate or trust those in power. Populist and authoritarian leaders take full advantage of this, fuelling division and using people’s fears to justify attacks on democratic institutions while tightening their grip on power.

On the global stage, western governments – particularly the USA – have long positioned themselves as champions of democracy, but their credibility has taken a hit when they’ve prioritised economic or security interests over democratic values. That kind of inconsistency has made it easier for authoritarian regimes to dismiss criticism and has undermined international cooperation on democracy.

What challenges do democracy movements face?

Governments around the world are cracking down on civic space, restricting free speech, shutting down protests and making it harder for activists, civil society organisations and independent media to operate.

Grassroots movements struggle to gain real access to decision-making spaces, whether in national politics or international institutions. It’s not just about funding or practical barriers such as visas and translation; it’s about political will. Civil society voices are often sidelined, even in spaces where democracy is supposedly being championed. It’s telling when an authoritarian leader gets a seat at a democracy summit, but local activists working on the ground don’t.

On top of that, foreign aid cuts from the USA and European governments have had a devastating impact on the ground, leaving the democracy movement fighting an uphill battle against authoritarian forces. Meanwhile, authoritarians are playing the long game, investing heavily in clear, emotionally charged narratives that fuel fear and division.

How can public trust in democratic institutions be restored?

For our project participants, restoring trust in democracy emerged as a top priority. It means making it feel tangible in people’s daily lives, rather than just something they engage with every few years at the ballot box. This requires creating new opportunities for participation beyond elections, so people feel they have a real say in the decisions that affect them.

Political parties must also become more representative of the communities they serve and engage with them year-round, not just during campaigns. At the same time, governments need to work more closely with civil society and not just treat them as stakeholders to consult, but as genuine partners in shaping policy. When civil society is meaningfully involved, policies tend to be more responsive to public needs, which in turn strengthens legitimacy and trust.

In the current climate, rebuilding trust in democracy means forging a new democratic contract so that people see themselves as part of a shared political community and governments are held accountable for delivering security, economic opportunities and social progress. That means tackling inequality head-on and ensuring that democracy delivers. But beyond policies, democracy also has to offer a sense of belonging and hope for the future.

Why have past strategies failed and what can be improved?

One of the biggest takeaways from our research is that democracy efforts have struggled to connect with people in ways that feel relevant to their everyday lives. The language used is often too technical or abstract, and it doesn’t speak to the real economic and social anxieties people face. That leaves a gap authoritarian leaders are quick to fill.

There’s also widespread frustration with the lack of consequences for those who violate human rights and democratic norms. Governments make strong statements in support of democracy, but too often they don’t enforce those principles. That inaction allows authoritarian leaders to repress opposition without serious pushback.

Democracy efforts have been fragmented, siloed across movements such as women’s rights, workers’ rights, climate justice and racial justice, as well as along ideological and regional lines. To mount a unified response to authoritarianism, we need to build broader, unified alliances across movements, regions and ideological divides. Sustained spaces for cross-movement collaboration are critical.

We need to invest in locally driven, global majority-led initiatives. The most effective pro-democracy work is happening at the grassroots level, but too often it’s underfunded or sidelined in favour of top-down approaches. The old model of western-led strategies that lack legitimacy and fail to connect with local realities simply doesn’t work anymore.

As traditional democracy aid is shrinking, we need to rethink how we fund our work. We should explore new funding sources. This means engaging development banks and ultra-high-net-worth individuals, including from the global south, exploring income generation and pushing private foundations to deploy more of their endowments. A pooled fund for democracy could provide more flexible, long-term support.

And finally, we need to invest in narrative infrastructure. Right now, authoritarian forces are winning the messaging game. Pro-democracy groups need to counter that with more coordinated efforts geared towards an inspiring vision of democracy that connects with people’s lived realities and aspirations.