CIVICUS discusses Austria’s parliamentary election with Andreas Kranebitter, Director of the Documentation Centre of the Austrian Resistance research institute (DÖW).

Austria’s far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) is gaining significant support ahead of the election on 29 September. Its poll numbers have jumped from 20 to 30 per cent, making it the most popular party. The FPÖ’s rise follows its deepening of anti-establishment rhetoric, including opposition to COVID-19 measures and scepticism about support for Ukraine. It has also adopted culture-war tactics that target transgender people and migrants and refugees. Despite past scandals, it appears poised for electoral success.

How is Austria’s political landscape changing?

The Austrian party landscape has changed radically over the past 30 years. The once dominant mass parties, the Austrian People’s Party and the Social Democratic Party of Austria, no longer have the strength that characterised them for decades after 1945. Today, voters are less loyal to specific parties, and every party currently represented in parliament has government experience, at least at the regional level. Small parties with different ideological orientations have increased their chances of entering parliament in recent years, and several have done so.

The FPÖ’s rise began in the late 1980s under Jörg Haider, who used far-right slogans to gain control of the party and disempower its liberal wing. In the decades that followed, he attracted support from various internal factions ranging from neoliberal to far right. His aggressive rhetoric, xenophobic stance and criticism of mainstream parties enabled him to mobilise new voters.

However, internal tensions and a massive electoral defeat following the FPÖ’s first participation in government in 2002 soon led to a split. A pattern of split followed by radicalisation has been repeated several times since. Another electoral slump followed the FPÖ’s exit from government in 2019, but this was accompanied by a further shift to the right.

Does the FPÖ’s rise reflect broader trends?

The FPÖ’s rise is part of a wider European trend. In Germany, the far-right Alternative for Germany is gaining momentum in the polls and made significant gains in recent regional elections. In Italy, the post-fascist Giorgia Meloni is currently in power, and in France, Marine Le Pen narrowly missed winning this year’s parliamentary election. The FPÖ’s most successful role model, however, is Viktor Orbán’s government in Hungary, although Vladimir Putin’s United Russia also maintains a friendship treaty with the FPÖ.

In his quest to establish what he calls an ‘illiberal democracy’, Orbán has relied on racism, restricted civil society and undermined independent media and oversight institutions, while frequently criticising the European Union. The FPÖ shares much of this rhetoric and aims.

But the rise of authoritarianism is not limited to Europe. This is also a global trend, a prominent example being the popularity of Donald Trump.

What’s the outlook for the election?

Election results are often influenced by current events. Recent severe flooding, for example, could affect voter behaviour and harm the FPÖ, which opposes climate change policies and promotes fossil fuels.

But we shouldn’t overestimate the weight of current events. Several sociological surveys show attitudes have shifted to the right at least since the arrival of refugees in 2015 and the pandemic in 2020, and the FPÖ has been able to channel these sentiments effectively. Our barometer of right-wing extremism shows 29 per cent of Austrians think Muslims shouldn’t be allowed to immigrate to Austria and 38 per cent don’t want Roma or Sinti people as neighbours.

This points to a deep-rooted shift towards authoritarian, exclusionary politics. Whether the FPÖ comes first or second, these problems will remain. Politics should be about changing the conditions that cause racism, not exploiting them – but that is exactly what the FPÖ is doing, adding fuel to the fire whenever it can.

What are the chances of the FPÖ becoming the dominant force?

There is a high probability the FPÖ will become the largest parliamentary party. It’s been leading the polls for several months and won the most votes in the recent European Parliament elections for the first time. However, its results were worse than polls predicted, so a surprise is possible in these parliamentary elections too.

Even if the FPÖ wins, forming a coalition will be a challenge. The leaders of all the other major parties have said they won’t support FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl as chancellor, but we’ll have to see whether they’ll keep their promise or not. But the FPÖ will make this claim if it wins the election. Paradoxically, its election result will be less decisive for its possible participation in government than that of the other parties. The Austrian People’s Party is likely to play a decisive role, as no coalition is likely to have a majority in parliament without it.

Do you think Austrian democracy is in danger?

The FPÖ’s participation in the government would certainly threaten many people in Austria. The party promotes a right-wing agenda committed to the ‘German ethnic, linguistic and cultural community’. It seeks to delegitimise democratic and scientific institutions, sympathises with authoritarian leaders such as Orbán and Putin, and stigmatises entire population groups, particularly Muslims. It adopts the language of far-right movements on ideas such as the ‘great replacement’ theory and ‘remigration’.

But even if the FPÖ were to enter government, it would struggle to implement its full agenda. It would need a coalition partner, which is not on the cards, and stronger public support, which is now significant but far from overwhelming. Despite all the worrying polls, and despite coming first in the European elections, the FPÖ that time won less than 900,000 votes out of 6.3 million eligible voters.

Our barometer of right-wing extremism also shows very high levels of support for democracy and its key institutions, with only around a fifth of people wanting a strong leader. This is worrying, but it’s no reason to panic. Since the FPÖ first entered government in 2000, we haven’t had a ‘cordon sanitaire’ or ‘firewall’ against right-wing extremism, unlike France and Germany – but we do have a very active civil society that never tires of pointing out the dangers of right-wing extremism. It is appropriate to be alarmed and to act, but we should avoid alarmism, which would only paralyse us.

Get in touch with DÖW through its website and follow @doew_at and @AKranebit on Twitter.