Between 2023 and 2025, the security situation deteriorated considerably despite the junta’s promises. The military had justified the coup by denouncing the misappropriation of public funds, but produced no results. Corruption continued. Figures already known for their predatory behaviour continued to thrive under military rule, doing even more business than before. A 2019 audit of defence and security spending for 2017 and 2018 revealed massive embezzlement at the Ministry of National Defence, but no one was prosecuted.

This lack of results led to massive internal demobilisation. The junta started to lose its legitimacy in the eyes of the population. Early supporters began to wonder whether the coup had served any purpose. The junta’s rhetoric lost all credibility, because the junta was replicating exactly the practices of its predecessors.

In March, the European Parliament adopted a resolution demanding Bazoum’s release. The junta attempted to exploit it, claiming that external powers had not abandoned their plans for intervention. Formally speaking, the European Parliament has the right to make pronouncements on human rights violations, as these values are universal. The ECOWAS Court of Justice and the United Nations Working Group on Arbitrary Detention had both ordered Bazoum’s release, ruling that his detention was arbitrary.

However, the resolution contained controversial elements. Beyond the Bazoum issue, it included remarks on migration matters. The European policy of externalising borders and delegating migration control to African states is hotly contested. Niger’s 2015 law on the smuggling of migrants, adopted practically under the European Union’s (EU) dictates, drew heavy criticism. Many see it as a violation of the freedom of movement, a fundamental human right.

Above all, the resolution reflects France’s growing isolation. Between 2023 and 2025, Germany, Spain and other European states normalised their relations with the junta, leaving France isolated. The European Parliament was seen as a tool enabling France to re-engage Europe and regain the solidarity it had lost. For many in Niger, this was not a sincere defence of human rights, but a geopolitical intervention serving French interests.

Civil society space in Niger has been systematically shut down. A 2024 cybercrime decree makes the production and dissemination of information likely to disturb public order punishable by up to five years in prison. This applies even if the information is true. In other words, one can be prosecuted for publishing proven facts.

Worse still, the 2024 provisions have abolished suspended sentences and mitigating circumstances for these offences. A judge may not grant either, which is a fundamental violation of the principles of criminal law. Another decree also subjugates the judiciary. It grants the military chief, elevated to the position of President of the Republic, the power to take all appropriate measures against any magistrate whose decisions run counter to the interests of the nation. Two judges have already been removed for this reason.

A third decree allows for the withdrawal of citizenship from those deemed to be in league with enemy powers or compromising the nation’s interests, a vague definition that encompasses any criticism of the military regime. Over 20 Nigeriens have been stripped of their citizenship under this provision.

Beyond these decrees, the junta has dissolved all independent political parties, closed a newspaper and dissolved five trade unions in the judicial field for protesting against the removal of a magistrate. This was all done by decree, in violation of international labour conventions, which prohibit such dissolution by regulatory means.

The most widespread dissolution targeted civil society organisations. The junta demanded reports from all organisations, giving them a one-month deadline. By the end of this period, 1,665 organisations had submitted reports, which were published in the Official Gazette. The junta then dissolved all those not listed there. Prior to this operation, available statistics indicated there were around 3,000 to 4,000 organisations and associations in Niger. Around 60 per cent of civil society organisations were dissolved in a single stroke.

It’s very difficult to believe that external pressure could secure the release of Bazoum and other political detainees. Every external voice is immediately exploited by the junta as evidence of imperialism. Ironically, silence has created more space for internal criticism. When the threat of intervention existed, internal mobilisation was stifled by fear. When this threat subsided, critical voices began to emerge. It was precisely at this moment that the junta enacted its repressive decrees. The EU’s statement in March 2026 enabled it to rally its supporters around an external threat.

Genuine avenues of resistance must be home-grown. External forces must speak as little as possible. Any external statement tends to serve as a pretext to discredit internal voices by portraying them as foreign stooges. Yet some continue to resist locally. It’s a labour of endurance, involving patient awareness-raising, clandestine meetings and resistance mechanisms that predate social media.

Time is on the side of democratic forces. Historically, repression alone has never been enough to maintain power. Society is currently at a low ebb, but it will bounce back.