CIVICUS discusses Japan’s recent election with Akio Takayanagi, a policy advisor with the Japan NGO Center for International Cooperation, a network of 100 civil society organisations working to eradicate global poverty, inequality and injustice.

Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since 2009 following a snap election on 27 October. Newly appointed Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba called the election after a corruption scandal involving LDP lawmakers angered voters, on top of their struggles with inflation and stagnant wages. Although the LDP came first, it fell short of a majority, and its coalition partner, Komeito, also lost seats. The opposition made gains, but also faced criticism for not offering a strong alternative. Japan’s politics have entered a period of uncertainty and potential instability.

How unexpected were the election results?

The results were not entirely unexpected, as public support for the LDP has been declining over the past year. Its significant losses reflect economic, political and social frustrations, as well as growing voter scepticism and disengagement.

Economic challenges were a major factor. Unpopular cabinet policies and rumours of tax increases raised concerns about household finances. Japan’s economic stagnation, inflation and the depreciation of the yen from ¥110 to ¥150 per US dollar in five years put additional pressure on living standards, particularly given Japan’s heavy reliance on energy imports. These economic issues have been compounded by a sharp demographic decline, with fewer than 700,000 births expected this year, deepening public pessimism about the future.

The LDP’s image was further tarnished by a funding scandal involving several of its politicians. Although some of the implicated candidates were running as independents, the controversy damaged the party’s reputation. While the change of leadership to Shigeru Ishiba initially raised hopes of a new direction, his decision to call a snap election—a tactic historically used to consolidate power under new leadership—failed to resonate with voters already disillusioned by political stagnation.

Why was turnout low?

The low turnout of 53.85 per cent reflected widespread apathy and a lack of confidence in both the ruling party and the opposition, which has yet to offer a convincing alternative. The combination of economic strain, political dissatisfaction and voter apathy highlighted a growing disconnect between people and the political system.

Meaningful reforms and proof that political participation can lead to tangible improvements will be required to rebuild trust and re-engage voters. Without such changes, political apathy and alienation are likely to persist.

Is Japan seeing any increase in right-wing populism?

Japan is not entirely immune to the rise of right-wing populism, but its scale remains relatively modest compared to western countries. While some populist parties have attracted attention, their impact on national politics has been limited. For example, a populist party from Osaka expanded nationally but lost many of its seats and now mainly influences its regional base. Similarly, the recently formed Conservative Party, linked to allies of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, won a few seats but failed to gain significant national support.

At the local level, however, right-wing populists have been more successful. Soon after the snap election, the populist governor of Hyogo Prefecture was re-elected despite a non-confidence vote at the local council, and the former mayor of Nagoya has moved from local to national politics, demonstrating that these movements can act as stepping stones for higher political ambitions. The LDP has also incorporated nationalist elements under leaders such as Abe to appeal to conservative voters and limit the rise of external populist alternatives.

While their current impact remains limited, the emergence of these movements reflects underlying frustrations within the electorate. If mainstream parties fail to address pressing issues effectively, right-wing populism could grow.

What are the possible post-election scenarios?

The post-election political landscape poses significant challenges for the LDP and its coalition partner. Without a majority, the ruling coalition will have to negotiate issue-specific agreements with smaller conservative parties. This dependence introduces unpredictability, as political disagreements could stall legislative progress.

Japan’s bicameral system adds another layer of complexity. While the recent elections were for the lower house of parliament, the election for the upper house is scheduled for July 2025. The staggered six-year terms of the upper house often result in different political dynamics between the chambers, potentially creating additional obstacles to passing laws.

The opposition also faces challenges, as it is highly fragmented. Ranging from the Communist Party and centre-left parties such as the Constitutional Democratic Party to right-wing populists, their ideological diversity makes it difficult to form cohesive coalitions. In many regions, opposition candidates compete with each other, splitting the vote and weakening their overall impact, even as discontent with the LDP grows.