CIVICUS discusses Guinea’s delayed democratic transition with Alix Boucher, assistant research fellow at the US-based Africa Center for Strategic Studies.

Guinea has seen protests after the ruling junta failed to meet its deadline of 31 December 2024 for democratic transition, promised following its 2021 coup. The interim president, General Mamady Doumbouya, has announced plans for a constitutional referendum but without a precise timetable. Restrictions on media and the dissolution of political parties raise concerns about the credibility of any potential election. Recent protests were met with repression, resulting in one death and hundreds of arrests.

What’s preventing Guinea from achieving its promised democratic transition?

The biggest obstacle is the junta’s apparent lack of political will to uphold its commitment to restoring democratic governance. Rather than making a genuine effort to return to civilian rule, the junta appears intent on staying in power.

Soon after seizing power, the junta, led by then Colonel Mamadi Doumbouya, agreed to a 10-point transition plan sponsored by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), set to be completed by December 2024. However, the junta has repeatedly delayed implementation and failed to allocate the necessary resources. Now, it has once again promised to do so in 2025.

While junta leaders have repeatedly stated they will be barred from running in future elections, they have now proposed a constitution that includes no such restrictions. In addition, it appears they will be granted immunity for their actions in office. Meanwhile, now General Doumbouya, who used to be called ‘president of the transition’, is being referred to as ‘president of the republic‘.

This all suggests the junta is following the blueprint developed by Chad’s General Mahamat Déby, who staged a national dialogue, oversaw a constitutional referendum that allowed junta members to run for elections and then secured his victory in a tightly controlled vote.

How have recent protests changed the political landscape?

The fact that protests are happening at all is remarkable, given that opposition assemblies have been officially banned since 2022. It shows Guineans’ deep determination to return to civilian rule.

Despite the ban, protests organised by Guinea’s historically strong civil society and the opposition coalition, Living Forces of Guinea (Forces Vives de la Guinée, FVG), have demanded that the junta keep its promises and allow the election of a civilian government. In response, the junta has intensified its crackdown on protesters – with at least 47 killed since 2022 – and on civil society as a whole.

Two prominent opposition figures, Mamadou Billo Bah and Oumar Sylla, also known as Foniké Menguè, were abducted in July 2024 and remain missing. Their disappearance fits a pattern of escalating repression, including harassment, arrests and trials of critics. The authorities have banned or suspended over 50 political parties, and opposition leaders such as Aliou Bah have been jailed for offending Doumbouya, accused of corruption and forced into exile.

Independent media who dare to question the junta’s rule have also been targeted. The authorities have shut down multiple outlets and restricted internet access. The junta frequently accuses journalists and civil society leaders of ‘defaming the head of state’. This makes it increasingly difficult for Guineans to access reliable information about what’s happening in their country.

How credible is the upcoming constitutional referendum?

The referendum, tentatively scheduled for May, lacks any legitimacy. First, the proposed constitution was drafted by the junta without an inclusive, participatory process. Opposition groups and civil society argue that an illegitimate military junta should not be in charge of shaping Guinea’s future. The FVG has called for elections to be held first, so a democratically elected, legitimate civilian government can lead the process to review the 2020 constitution and decide what changes are needed.

The junta has increasingly militarised state institutions, making it even harder to believe it will relinquish power even after holding elections. In 2022, Doumbouya replaced all 34 civilian prefects with military officers. In March 2024, he dissolved the country’s 342 elected municipal councils and directly appointed 3,000 replacements. Since municipal authorities play a key role in organising elections, this move further consolidates junta control over the process.

Despite initially promising to hold elections in 2024, the junta never organised them. Now it says they will happen in 2025, starting with the constitutional referendum in May. But the prime minister and government spokesperson are already laying the groundwork for another delay, telling reporters that this timetable will be difficult to meet and that other parts of the transition plan must be implemented first. If elections do happen, they will likely be highly controlled as was the case in Chad and Gabon.

What would it take for a transition to democracy to succeed?

The junta would need to genuinely open the political space to allow a free and fair process. Elections must be organised by an independent body, not the junta. Political parties need freedom to operate, hold rallies and campaign without fear of repression. A free press and civil society are also essential to ensure the transparency of elections.

Guineans have a long history of fighting for democracy, as they resisted for 50 years the back-to back dictatorships of Ahmed Sékou Touré and General Lansana Conté, spanning from 1958 to 2008. These long periods of authoritarian and military rule shaped Guineans’ commitment to democracy and their desire for accountable and professional security forces firmly under civilian control.

The international community can support the transition by pressuring the junta and backing independent media and civil society efforts to forge a truly participatory process. They can also help professionalise Guinea’s military, promoting accountability and democratic norms in the security forces. This would build on the progress Guinea made between 2010 and 2021 and interrupt what could otherwise become yet another long cycle of military rule.