CIVICUS discusses the growth of the right-wing extremist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party with Cynthia Freund-Möller and Matthias Meyer, project lead and research associate at the Right-Wing Studies Knowledge Network (Wi-REX). Wi-REX brings together knowledge from different disciplines, creates spaces for reflection and interaction for researchers, develops tailor-made formats for knowledge transfer between research, practice and civil society and supports young researchers working on the topic of right-wing extremism.

Ahead of Germany’s 23 February general election, X/Twitter owner Elon Musk, now a key Donald Trump advisor, endorsed the AfD, currently second in the polls. German politicians, including centre-left Chancellor Olaf Scholz, have defended freedom of speech while condemning Musk’s comments as a threat to democracy. Civil society groups have mobilised against the AfD’s rise, mirroring resistance to similar far-right movements across Europe. The AfD’s growing support heightens concerns about potential changes to Germany’s immigration policy and threats to democratic institutions.

How have social media platforms, particularly X, shaped political discourse around the AfD?

While there’s no reliable data on how Musk’s endorsement influenced voter decisions in Germany, his 9 January interview with AfD co-leader Alice Weidel sparked significant public debate. German officials are investigating whether the interview constitutes an illegal party donation, as it was provided free of charge and reached a substantially larger audience than standard X content. Other political parties must pay for similar exposure, raising concerns about unfair advantage.

During the chaotic 75-minute conversation, Weidel falsely claimed Hitler was not ‘right-wing’ but a communist in an attempt to distance herself from Nazism. Rather than challenging this or her other numerous falsehoods, Musk concluded that ‘only the AfD can save Germany’.

Reports indicate Musk previously altered X’s algorithm to boost his tweets after seeing lower engagement than Joe Biden. Consequently, impressions for AfD-related content increased sharply around the time of Musk’s endorsement, despite no corresponding increase in party activity.

While the direct impact on AfD votes remains unclear, Musk’s endorsement has strengthened support among existing supporters. His status as a billionaire entrepreneur lends legitimacy to populist movements, making his backing significant for Germany’s approaching federal election. By spreading disinformation and aligning with the AfD, Musk reinforces the narrative that the party offers Germany economic and global advantages.

Musk may also have personal interests in supporting parties such as the AfD, which advocate for abolition of the EU’s Digital Services Act, designed to improve online safety and platform accountability. Eliminating this regulation would reduce oversight of social media platforms.

How has German civil society mobilised in response to the AfD’s rise?

Germany has witnessed its largest protests since reunification, though converting this momentum into tangible political action has proven challenging. A key element of resistance is the firewall – the Christian Democratic Party’s (CDU) long-standing refusal to cooperate with both the AfD and The Left.

While this stance remains intact at the federal level, CDU politicians have already collaborated with the AfD on regional issues such as education. The debate intensified on 29 January when CDU leader Friedrich Merz accepted AfD support for a migration-related resolution, effectively breaching the firewall.

Civil society has also taken direct action against right-wing policies. For example, in areas where asylum seekers receive payment cards instead of cash benefits to restrict their spending, local residents have begun exchanging cards for cash to help refugees. Right-wing politicians had argued the card system would prevent refugees sending money abroad, keeping it in the local economy.

How does the AfD’s trajectory compare to other far-right movements in Europe?

Though less established than Austria’s Freedom Party, AfD figures like Björn Höcke have drawn inspiration from Austria’s far right, often citing its policies as a model. At the European level, the AfD was expelled from the Identity and Democracy group in the European Parliament following a May 2024 scandal involving AfD member of parliament Maximilian Krah, who as well as facing accusations of espionage involving China and Russia, sparked outrage in a reference to the Nazi-era paramilitary group the SS by stating that ‘not all members of the SS were criminals’.

Germany’s history has historically impeded openly far-right parties from gaining traction. The AfD has evolved from a Eurosceptic, right-conservative party into an openly racist and anti-constitutional movement, with some members self-identifying as ‘the friendly face of National Socialism’. In contrast, far-right parties in Austria, France and Italy have spent decades building influence, occasionally as successors to fascist movements.

The AfD’s youth wing, Junge Alternative, has documented ties to right-wing extremists. In November 2024, security forces arrested suspected terrorists in Saxony who called themselves ‘Sächsische Separatisten’ – an SS reference. Several detainees were Junge Alternative members, including an AfD city councillor. The AfD subsequently dissolved its youth wing, likely as a strategic move to avoid a ban.

While debate continues, only 113 out of 733 members of parliament support banning the AfD. However, in November 2024, 18 constitutional experts argued that such ban would be legally justified to protect democracy.

What potential coalition governments could emerge from the election?

Since mainstream parties have ruled out working with the AfD, a ‘grand coalition’ between the CDU and the Social Democratic Party appears most likely. While this would provide stability, it could also deepen public frustration and political polarisation.

A left-wing coalition of Social Democrats, Greens and The Left seems improbable based on current polling. The situation is further complicated by three parties – The Left, the Free Democratic Party and the newly formed Wagenknecht Alliance –potentially failing to meet the five per cent threshold to enter parliament. Depending on results, the next Bundestag could include between four and seven parties, making coalition-building unpredictable.

How is the AfD’s growing influence affecting German politics?

As recently as November, Merz pledged to not rely on AfD votes in parliament. However, on 29 January he called a vote on a migration resolution knowing full well it would need AfD votes to pass. The proposal was widely considered unconstitutional under German and European Union law.

It was the first time since 1945 that a far-right party has played a decisive role in a federal German parliamentary vote, and it triggered nationwide protests. A second vote on January 31, this time on a draft law, failed by just nine votes, largely due to abstentions.

These events highlight the broader rightward shift in German politics, already evident in the 2024 regional elections. More subtle effects are also emerging. Public officials and civil society leaders may begin self-censoring or moderating their positions, fearing targeting by a potential future AfD-led government – a pattern similar to that observed in the USA.