Georgia’s ruling party, Georgian Dream, has retained power following the 26 October election. But the question is whether it can claim legitimacy.

The populist party, in power since 2012, won a fourth term with 89 out of 150 parliamentary seats. It finished far ahead of four opposition parties and coalitions, which had hoped to end its majority and install a technocratic administration. But the opposition is crying foul, saying the election was far from free and fair, and election observers have reported numerous irregularities.

On 28 October, several thousand people protested in the capital, Tbilisi. But it isn’t clear what will happen next. Georgia is poised between two different paths: one where democracy flourishes, human rights are respected and it fulfils the popular aspiration of joining the European Union (EU), and another where it becomes a satellite of authoritarian Russia, democracy is hollowed out and diversity and dissent aren’t welcomed.

Road to repression

The most powerful person in Georgian politics – Georgian Dream’s founder and honorary chair, Bidzina Ivanishvili – wasn’t on the ballot. He’s by far Georgia’s richest person, with an estimated fortune of US$7.6 billion – about a quarter of Georgia’s GDP. He made his fortune during the collapse of the Soviet Union when opportunities abounded for people with the right connections to buy state assets on the cheap. His patronage networks run deep and he pulls the strings of Georgian Dream to suit his interests.

That includes Georgia’s international relations. For Georgia, as for so many former Eastern Bloc states, the burning post-independence question has been how to balance relations between Russia and the EU. Both are keen to pull eastern and central European countries into their orbit, and Russia’s all-out assault on Ukraine has made the matter even more urgent. Georgia and Russia have a contentious history. The two went to war in 2008 and the country still has two breakaway Russian-affiliated regions, Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Polls show around 80 per cent of Georgians support joining the EU. Georgian Dream officially claims to follow a balanced foreign policy of supporting EU and NATO membership while also seeking to normalise relations with Russia. But its actions and rhetoric betray an increasing alignment with Vladimir Putin and his authoritarian worldview. Georgian-Russian relations have warmed since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Two repressive laws passed ahead of the election imitated those pioneered in Russia. In May, the government passed a ‘foreign agents’ law, designating civil society and media groups that receive 20 per cent or more of their funding from international sources as ‘pursuing the interests of a foreign power’. The tens of thousands who protested called this out as a ‘Russian law’, since it closely follows the template of a law introduced under Putin in 2012.

In Russia, the foreign agents law is one of the state’s main weapons against civil society, enabling vilification, fuelling public suspicion and providing grounds for banning organisations. Wherever such laws apply, they hinder civil society’s vital role of scrutinising the government and providing channels for debate and dissent. The passing of the law in the run-up to Georgia’s election seemed no coincidence.

The same can be said of the government’s other Russian-inspired repressive move. In September, parliament approved a highly discriminatory law empowering the authorities to censor books and films with LGBTQI+ content, stop discussion of LGBTQI+ issues in schools, ban people from flying rainbow flags and prevent Pride events.

This law was strikingly similar to one introduced in Russia in 2013, which the state has used extensively to criminalise and silence LGBTQI+ people. The intention seemed clear: to appeal to socially conservative supporters, while opening up another front to attack human rights and signal closer alignment with Russia. The EU responded by freezing financial aid and Georgia’s membership negotiations.

Georgia once stood out as one of the few ex-Soviet states that broadly respected civic freedoms, but that reputation is fading fast. Last year, the EU-Georgia Civil Society Platform – a body established under the EU-Georgia Association Agreement – criticised a sustained government smear campaign against civil society. Freedom House highlighted growing harassment and violence against journalists.

The authorities have also responded to protests with violence. When people protested against the foreign agents law earlier this year, security forces used rubber bullets, stun grenades, teargas and water cannon, and detained scores of people.

Ivanishvili had long shirked publicity, but ahead of the vote, he emerged from the shadows to accuse western countries of being part of a global conspiracy to drag Georgia into a repeat of the 2008 war. He claims LGBTQI+ rights are being pushed by western countries to undermine Georgia, and said one of the benefits of the two repressive laws is that they caused opponents to spend their energies before the election rather than during it.

Things could get worse. During the campaign, Ivanishvili threatened to jail politicians who disagree with him and ban the main opposition party. He accused the opposition of acting on foreign orders, corresponding with false Russian claims that the US government was plotting a revolution.

Troubling irregularities

There’s little doubt that the promise of appeasing Russia played well with many whose experiences of the 2008 war left them keen to avoid confrontation with their powerful neighbour at any cost. On top of that, Ivanishvili’s vast wealth and Georgian Dream’s long-running control of the state made this a deeply unequal contest. But Georgian Dream stands accused of going further, actively intervening to skew the vote.

While an exit poll for the main pro-government TV station indicated a big Georgian Dream win, other channels ran exit polls that showed it falling short of a majority. One of the pollsters, global research firm HarrisX, said the final results were ‘statistically impossible’.

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), a regional intergovernmental organisation with extensive experience of observing elections, raised a series of concerns in its preliminary report. On top of an uneven playing field and a lack of impartial news media, it found that on election day there was widespread intimidation of voters and observers, and in around a quarter of cases voting secrecy was potentially compromised, raising concerns about pressure on voters. European Parliament observers said much the same, and also accused Georgian Dream of promoting Russian disinformation and conspiracy theories.

Observers from MyVote, a coalition of some 2,000 election observers, reported physical and verbal attacks, obstruction of observers, violations of the secrecy of the vote, repeat voting and people using someone else’s vote, and a lack of proper checks when people cast their ballots. It filed a complaint calling for results to be annulled at 246 of the 1,131 polling stations it monitored.

There were also reports of ballot stuffing, pre-filled ballots, bribery, intimidation, vote buying, pressure on public sector employees to vote for Georgian Dream, party officials posing as neutral election observers and violence outside polling stations. Georgia’s media ombudsman concluded that election day was marked by violence against and intimidation of journalists and obstruction of their work. International media freedom groups condemned at least 30 such violations on election day.

The standoff

In the light of the many allegations, opposition parties have rejected the results. President Salome Zourabichvili, long at odds with Georgian Dream, has also refused to recognise the results and called for protests.

On the other side, Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze hailed Georgian Dream’s victory as a landslide, insisting any irregularities were small and isolated and didn’t affect the overall result. The prosecutor’s office announced an investigation into allegations – but the opposition fears it won’t be independent, since the head of the office is a parliamentary appointee and Georgian Dream dominated the last parliament.

The electoral commission ordered a recount of around 12 per cent of polling stations, and after doing so confirmed Georgian Dream’s victory. However, the commission has been criticised for lacking independence from the government.

Into the controversy waded Hungary’s hardline leader Viktor Orbán, the most pro-Russia of EU leaders and the current holder of the rotating EU presidency. As soon as the result was announced, Orbán descended on Georgia to congratulate Georgian Dream on what he called its ‘overwhelming victory’. Orbán sees himself as the leader of Europe’s right-wing populist and nationalist politicians, spearheading the fight to roll back EU safeguards on human rights and democratic freedoms. His visit sent a clear signal that Europe’s autocrats are happy with Georgia’s election result, which means Russia is too.

In response, 13 EU foreign affairs ministers signed a joint statement expressing concern about electoral violations and condemning Orbán’s visit – but given there are 27 EU countries, Hungary was far from the only significant absentee in this statement.

Uncertain future

Georgian Dream’s pre-election crackdown on civil society, independent media and LGBTQI+ people indicates how it will likely try to govern now it believes it has a fresh mandate: monopolising power and promoting narrow partisan interests rather than respecting pluralism and upholding the rights of all Georgians. It can be expected to continue to tailor its policies to appease Putin. The only consolation is that Georgian Dream didn’t achieve its stated aim of winning a parliamentary supermajority, which would have given it power to introduce even more repressive laws and ban opposition parties.

Opposition parties insist the new parliament will be illegitimate and they won’t enter it. Their key demand is for fresh elections, to be run by an independent international commission, with a caretaker government in place until they’re held. But they can also be criticised for failing to present a united front at the polls to offer voters a clear choice, and for lacking coordination in their post-election response.

Meanwhile, the protests may fade as people find it hard to keep up the momentum, given the government’s disregard for the earlier mass protests against the foreign agents law. State violence against protests is also always a possibility. Many of Georgia’s young people, who resisted repressive laws, see their future in the EU and want change, are now dejected and worried about what will happen next.

The EU should stand by them and urge the government to fully investigate all election irregularities. In the wake of the election, the European Commission has said it wants accession negotiations to stay frozen. Before that position changes, there should be assurances that the government is making progress in repealing repressive laws, ending vilification and upholding fundamental rights. Georgian Dream must accept it’s emerged from the election weakened and with questionable legitimacy: the proper response to this should be not more repression but greater openness, starting by establishing a more constructive relationship with civil society.

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