The fallout from recent European Parliament elections was most dramatic in France. Faced with the far right coming first, President Emmanuel Macron dissolved parliament and called early elections. Left-wing parties and civil society then came together to offer an alternative to the far right, and it worked: the far right fell far short of its target. It won’t be easy to form a government, but at least the far right is temporarily out of the equation. However, its share of the vote has continued to grow. France offers a cautionary tale for European civil society to learn from if it is to help stave off the far-right threat.

The eyes of the world are on France as it hosts the 2024 Olympics. For the moment, sport rather than politics dominates the headlines. But once the games are over, some major political decisions will need to be made.

For the first time since France’s Fifth Republic began in the 1950s, recent parliamentary elections didn’t produce a majority winner. Instead, it’s led to protracted, open-ended negotiations to form a government.

Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, in office only since January, tendered his resignation as soon as the results of 7 July runoff votes were known, but President Emmanuel Macron decided to keep him on as head of a centrist caretaker government until a new administration can be formed. More than two weeks later, the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) bloc – which has the most seats but is nowhere near a majority – finally announced its consensus candidate for prime minister. Macron however said he’d wait until after the Olympics to avoid ‘disorder’.

It all started on 9 June, when France held its European Parliament election. First place went to Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN), led by the young Jordan Bordella. RN took over 31 per cent of the vote, eight points more than in the previous European elections in 2019. It won 30 of France’s 81 European Parliament seats, up from 23.

Macron’s party fell by almost the same proportion, and with its 14.6 per cent finished on only 13 seats. The same number of seats went to the Socialist Party (PS), with an additional nine going to the party to its left, La France Insoumise (LFI). This showed that not all dissatisfaction with Macron benefited the extreme right; the left grew in equal measure.

In reaction to these results, Macron pulled off a surprise move to try to reassert control, dissolving the National Assembly, France’s parliament, to trigger a snap election. The risky move didn’t pay off for him, but it might have given French democracy a bit of breathing space. While the far right didn’t lose support, those determined to prevent its rise united and – at least for now – blocked its path to power.

Civil society mobilises

As soon as the snap election was announced, a wide range of left and centre-left parties quickly put aside their considerable differences to form the NFP. Launched on 10 June, the group’s name echoed the anti-fascist Popular Front alliance of the 1930s. It included the LFI, the PS, the Ecologists and the French Communist Party (PCF), among others. Backed by organised labour and many civil society organisations, it campaigned on a progressive platform that included reversing controversial 2023 changes to the retirement age, increasing public sector wages and benefits, raising the minimum wage, freezing the prices of basic goods and public services and increasing taxes on the rich.

But in a context of a widening gap between voters and the political elite, it fell to civil society to channel anger, fear and hope into a political force that could counter the rise of the far right. These efforts were reflected in a turnout of almost 67 per cent in both the first round and runoffs of the parliamentary elections, some 20 percentage points higher than in 2012 and 2017.

Civil society worked tirelessly to get out the vote. After the first round, it mobilised massively to call attention to the far-right danger. And after the runoff, it took to the streets in celebration.

Following voting on 30 June, an unprecedentedly high proportion of the National Assembly’s 577 seats remained unallocated because in numerous constituencies no candidate got a majority of the vote, triggering a runoff round. Overall, the RN and its allies led with 33 per cent, claiming 38 of 76 seats allocated in the first round, thanks to taking more than half the vote in those districts. It was followed by the NFP with 28 per cent and Macron’s party, Ensemble, with 21 per cent. Unusually, more than 300 constituencies had three-way runoffs on 7 July, while in over a hundred, NFP or Ensemble candidates withdrew to reduce the chances of a far-right win.

The NFP’s emergence of the challenged the far right’s dominance but also upset Macron’s bet. In 2017 and 2022, with the left divided, it had been easy for Macron to win by attracting the anti-Le Pen vote. Not this time.

Danger averted?

In the end, the RN and its allies won only 142 seats, while the NFP took the most, 180, and Ensemble 159. With no party winning a majority, it’s not clear who the prime minister will be or how long they’ll last, given France’s lack of experience with coalition governments. The only thing clear is that they won’t come from the far right.

Shifting politics

Since Charles de Gaulle introduced the semi-presidential system in 1958, the National Assembly has been dominated by the president’s party, with the Gaullist right the leading force for the first two decades, and the PS and the PCF its main opponents. In 1981, the PS won the presidency for the first time, but the right won the subsequent parliamentary election, leading to a novel experience of ‘cohabitation’ between a president and prime minister of different political colours. So far, there have been three such experiences: two under a socialist president and one under a right-wing president.

In recent years, the back-and-forth between socialists and the traditional right has come to an end, with Macron changing the game in 2017. Three major blocs have emerged: Macron’s liberal centre-right, Le Pen’s far right and, more recently, the leftist populist bloc led by LFI – now part of the NFP.

In previous cohabitation experiences, prime ministers had the support of a parliamentary majority. But Attal has led a minority government, forced to build temporary majorities around specific issues or rely on Macron pushing initiatives through by decree, as allowed by article 49.3 of the constitution – which may have contributed to the government’s growing unpopularity. The NFP has ruled out governing with Macron’s party, and both have said they won’t work with the far right. This puts France in uncharted waters. A technocratic government isn’t out of the question.

Although it didn’t win a majority of seats and won’t be part of the next government, the RN again placed first in the legislative runoff, increasing its vote share to 37 per cent. Its presence in parliament has grown from just six deputies in 2017 to 89 in 2022 and now 143. Its 2024 performance only seemed like a defeat because it fell short of the very high expectations fuelled by polls that consistently put it close to an absolute majority of 289. When the results were announced, the RN’s leaders denounced what they characterised as ‘theft’ perpetrated by an ‘alliance of dishonour’ and defiantly announced that their victory had only been delayed – until the presidential election scheduled for 2027.

Voices from the frontline

Paymon Azmoudeh is a France-based political and geopolitical risk analyst.

 

Democracy was and still is at stake. If the far right ever leads a government in France, it could have a profound and potentially harmful effect on democracy. The RN’s core platform is based on an idea of ‘national preference’ that flies in the face of the race-blind, colour-blind, egalitarian ideals of the French Republic, and its attitudes and discourse suggest it would govern in an illiberal manner, much like the current government in Hungary and until recently the government of Poland.

French civil society played a crucial role in the republican front, which once again kept the far right out of power. Labour unions, civic groups and community organisations mobilised effectively to support the left-wing coalition in particular. The quick unification of normally fractious political parties into an effective electoral coalition also facilitated this mobilisation.

However, the long-term influence of labour unions has waned, and there’s a broader atomisation of French society, like many other societies. Fortunately, young French people remain politically active and engaged, and they are ready and willing to demonstrate and organise for their beliefs. This energy is a good sign for the future of French civil society, although there is also no denying that the far right and its ideas are making inroads among the youngest generation of French voters as well.

One interesting development is the left-wing coalition’s professed openness to having a non-politician, such as a union leader or civil society figure, lead the next government. It does not appear that coalition members are close to agreeing on a candidate amongst themselves, but if they were to pursue this idea, it would signal an interesting shift towards greater inclusion of civil society in governance.

Overall, civil society here, as everywhere, must continue to be vigilant and active in defending democratic norms and the ideals upon which French democracy has been built.

 

This is an edited extract of our conversation with Paymon. Read the full interview here.

Europe – mixed picture but a rightward shift

France’s shock result in the 27-country European elections was the biggest, but not the only one. In Germany, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) had its best-ever performance, securing second place and potentially setting it up to do well in next year’s federal elections. Together, France and Germany account for a quarter of European parliamentarians, and in both countries the far right made significant gains while the Greens lost ground.

In Austria, where a national election awaits in September, the right-wing Freedom Party of Austria came top. Far-right Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy more than doubled its seats.

But far-right parties saw their share of the vote fall in Denmark, Finland and Sweden, where left-wing and green parties did better. In Poland, the centre-ground coalition government held off a challenge from the right-wing Law and Justice party, until recently the country’s governing party. And for Hungary’s right-wing authoritarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, the results were a rare setback: while his Fidesz party got 44 per cent of vote, it was its worst performance in almost two decades.

Rather than reflecting preferences about European Union (EU) policy, European elections mainly offer voters a chance to send a message to their governments on national-level issues, and protest votes are common. But as well as showing further consolidation of the far right in some of Europe’s most powerful countries, the results have regional implications.

In the European Parliament as a whole, there’s been a shift to the right, as the two far-right groups – the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and Identity and Democracy (ID) – made the biggest gains. If they joined forces, they could become the second biggest parliamentary grouping. But they face obstacles to unity because their members differ on key issues. For instance, Brothers of Italy, an ECR member, is pro-European, while the RN, an ID member, is Eurosceptic. Together, however, they could still push EU policy to the right, particularly on issues such as climate and migration.

But it wasn’t a landslide, and the political centre held. The biggest losses were suffered by the liberal group Renew Europe, which includes Macron’s party, and the Greens/European Free Alliance group. In contrast, the conservative, centre-right European People’s Party, with members including France’s Republicans and Germany’s Christian Democrats, improved on its previous performance and retained its majority, while the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats remained the second largest group. On 18 July, the new parliament approved a second term for EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, a member of the German Christian Democratic Union.

Voices from the frontline

Philipp Jäger is Policy Fellow at the Jacques Delors Centre, an independent, non-partisan think tank focused on European policy processes and outcomes.

 

The future of the EU as we know cannot be taken for granted. While the European Parliament’s overall shift to the right suggests a changing political landscape, the centre right is likely to retain control over most legislation. However, we may see more cooperation between the centre right and far right on specific issues such as migration.

The situation is somewhat different in the European Council, where decisions require unanimity or qualified majority voting. Although the election hasn’t changed its composition, it has weakened the governments of France and Germany and strengthened Italy. This is highly relevant because small groups of governments, or individual governments, can block legislation or use their votes to extract concessions. EU-sceptical states or destructive forces such as Hungary’s government have often used their veto power.

The rise of Eurosceptic, right-wing governments in key EU states such as Italy, Slovakia, the Netherlands and possibly Austria, which holds elections soon, could further fuel anti-EU sentiment. If the number of hard-right, anti-EU governments increases, they will quickly gain more influence in the Council. While this scenario may not lead to the dissolution of the EU, it could result in an EU where consensus and common action become increasingly difficult.

 

This is an edited extract of our conversation with Philipp. Read the full interview here.

Danger still looming

But that doesn’t mean nothing has changed. Le Pen’s certainty that the RN will ultimately triumph and the fact that over a third of French voters backed her should serve as a warning – not only to France, but to the whole of Europe.

In election after election, including for the European Parliament, significant numbers of European voters are expressing dissatisfaction with the choices on offer, with politicians viewed as a self-serving political class far removed from their daily concerns. As people become increasingly worried about the cost of living, their livelihoods and an uncertain future, they can fall prey to far-right promises of deceptively simple solutions to highly complex problems.

But although the far right is likely to continue to make progress, its victory isn’t preordained. The French experience shows there are strategies that can keep it out of power. At the same time, this enables far-right narratives that establishment stitch-ups are preventing the will of the people being realised, an argument some voters may find persuasive.

No amount of political manoeuvring ultimately prevented the far right coming to power in Italy. There’s a need for politicians who oppose the far right to both win the battle of narratives and offer policies that deliver on people’s material needs. On both counts, working with civil society should be a crucial part of the response.

OUR CALLS FOR ACTION

  • Mainstream political parties must refuse to adopt far right discourse and policies.
  • Progressive political parties should take public anxieties that far-right parties seize on seriously and offer progressive and inclusive alternatives to address them.
  • Civil society should work collectively to help shape public discourse and prevent the normalisation of the far right.

For interviews or more information, please contact research@civicus.org

Cover photo by Jerome Gilles/NurPhoto via Getty Images