The latest global climate summit, COP29, is being held in Azerbaijan, a petrostate with closed civic space. Following previous summits in Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, this will be the third in a row hosted by a government that systematically represses civil society, and the second by an oil and gas superpower bent on continued extraction. Azerbaijan, fresh from victory in its conflict with Armenia, is determined to use the summit not to accelerate progress on climate change but as a public relations opportunity. The loudest climate action demands come from civil society, but in the run-up to the summit Azerbaijan has intensified its crackdown on civil society freedoms.

For the third year running, the world’s most important climate summit is being held in a country where people have virtually no say. COP29 will take place from 11 to 22 November in Azerbaijan, a country with closed civic space, which means the state systematically denies people’s fundamental rights to organise, protest and speak out. As with previous summits, held in Egypt in 2022 and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in 2023, this has made it much harder for civil society to mobilise to influence the summit’s outcomes.

In any global summit, domestic civil society usually plays a big role in coordinating advocacy and engaging with the host government during the lengthy preparatory processes. But in Azerbaijan there’s no chance of that: the government has worked to prevent it by intensifying its long-running crackdown on civil society ahead of COP29.

State repression goes hand in hand with Azerbaijan’s main industries, oil and gas extraction. Azerbaijan is one of the world’s most fossil fuel-dependent economies, with the sector accounting for two-thirds of GDP and 90 per cent of export revenues. For the second year running, the world’s peak climate summit is being hosted by a petrostate – a country dedicated to fossil fuel extraction with no intention of stopping.

An authoritarian state

For over three decades, Azerbaijan has been ruled by two generations of the same family. In 2003, President Ilham Aliyev took over from his father Heydar, the last leader of Soviet-era Azerbaijan, installed after a military coup in 1993. Ilham Aliyev has so far served five terms, all made possible by fraudulent elections.

The Aliyev family’s political and economic power are intimately entwined. The family has stakes in  oil and gas companies, as well as banks and businesses in sectors such as construction and telecommunications. They sit at the centre of an opaque web of corruption where huge amounts of money slosh around with virtually no oversight. This wealth is both enabled by and funds authoritarianism, with people unable to question state decisions and speak out against corruption.

Azerbaijan’s oil wealth also funds an intensive international image-laundering strategy. The government practices what’s known as ‘caviar diplomacy’, lavishly lobbying western politicians and rewarding them for downplaying criticism of its human rights abuses. There’s clear evidence of Azerbaijani bribery of European politicians to help portray the regime in a positive light. The extensively redeveloped capital, Baku, has hosted numerous international sporting and cultural events in an array of futuristic new arenas and stadiums. A high-profile global summit represents one more opportunity for Aliyev to project a positive international image.

COP29 comes at a time of self-confidence for Azerbaijan, buoyed by last year’s victory in its long-running conflict with neighbouring Armenia. Until recently, the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, which lies within Azerbaijan’s borders but had a predominantly ethnic Armenian population, functioned as a de facto independent state. But last year, Azerbaijan decisively won the conflict when it followed a 10-month blockade with a rapid military offensive, having used its fossil fuel wealth to build up its military strength and after carefully recalibrating its relationship with Russia, which historically sided with Armenia.

Fearing genocide, almost the entire population of over 100,000 fled to Armenia. This could reasonably be described as forced migration and ethnic cleansing, a claim borne out by Azerbaijan’s subsequent destruction of Armenian heritage sites and Aliyev’s jubilant declaration that there is ‘no longer any trace of separatists’.

There’s been no hint of accountability for human rights violations committed during the conflict, and people in Azerbaijan haven’t been able to make this demand. Within a month of the decisive offensive, at least 20 people had been detained for criticising the government’s actions. Those who try to speak out risk being vilified as ‘pro-Armenian’.

Expanding extraction

Russia’s all-out assault on Ukraine has worked in Azerbaijan’s favour. It made Russia unlikely to intervene in Nagorno-Karabakh; instead it took a neutral position and recognised that the territory should be integrated into Azerbaijan. Last year, Russia backed Azerbaijan’s bid to host COP29, blocking Bulgaria’s candidacy and leaning on Armenia to withdraw its rival proposal.

In 2022, Azerbaijan also agreed to import gas from Russia, helping offset European countries’ declining demand for Russian gas. At the same time, European countries have looked to Azerbaijan to replace their Russian supplies. In 2022, the European Union agreed to double its gas imports from Azerbaijan.

Given the economic and political benefits Aliyev and his elite derive from fossil fuels, there’s simply no way Azerbaijan will turn off the oil and gas taps. In fact, it plans to expand extraction. Despite intense lobbying by petrostates and oil and gas companies, COP28 finally agreed on the need to move away from fossil fuels – but the State Oil Company of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) plans to increase annual gas production by around a third. Despite the International Energy Agency making clear that investment in fossil fuels must stop now if there’s any hope of the world achieving net zero status by 2050, the Azerbaijani government somehow claims continued extraction is compatible with the Paris Agreement.

SOCAR has its hands in COP29: its president, Rovshan Najaf, is part of the summit’s organising committee and the event’s head, Azerbaijan’s Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources, Mukhtar Babayev, worked for SOCAR for over two decades.

SOCAR has minimal plans to invest in renewable energy. It only set up a ‘green energy’ programme after Azerbaijan was picked as COP29 host. It committed 97 per cent of its 2023 capital spending to oil and gas projects. And its greenwashing comes with a particularly grotesque element: Aliyev has designated emptied-out Nagorno-Karabakh as a ‘green energy zone’, ripe for hydropower development as he seeks to repurpose the territory with foreign investment from companies from Japan, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland and the UK.

Sickeningly, Azerbaijan is also trying to use the summit to position itself as a peacemaker. It’s called for a global ceasefire during COP29, which would be a first in the history of the annual climate summits. There’s no doubt ceasefires are needed, in Gaza and in the many other conflicts raging around the world, to save lives and curb the under-acknowledged contribution of military greenhouse gas emissions to climate change. But a state with such recent involvement in conflict and with no accountability for conflict crimes has no moral authority to make such a call.

Crackdown intensifies

Azerbaijan’s intensified crackdown on dissent makes clear it sees COP29 as a public relations opportunity that it doesn’t want spoiled by people drawing attention to its climate hypocrisy and poor human rights record.

The country currently has more than 300 political prisoners, including over 20 journalists. Critical civil society organisations have been dismantled through arbitrary refusal of registration and funding restrictions. Independent media can’t operate, and people who speak out face fabricated criminal charges, travel bans and frozen bank accounts.

This has left many too afraid, leading to self-censorship, including when it comes to the negative impacts of Azerbaijan’s oil and gas industry on communities.

The state routinely uses violence to suppress protests, including environmental protests. In June 2023, for example, people in the village of Soyudlu protested against the construction of an artificial lake to contain waste from a gold mine. Police responded by beating and detaining protesters and journalists covering the event, and spraying a chemical irritant in the faces of several older women protesters.

If there was any hope COP29 processes might open up space, it was quickly dashed. It didn’t happen in Egypt or the UAE, and it hasn’t happened here. Azerbaijani civil society tried to organise, forming the Climate of Justice coalition. They hoped to focus attention on climate and human rights issues and the connections between them. But they had to shut it down when one of its leaders, Anar Mammadli, was arrested and detained. It’s fallen to Azerbaijani civil society in exile to keep up the pressure.

Voices from the frontline

Emin Huseynov is an exiled Azerbaijani journalist, human rights activist and the lead campaigner for the Climate Observers Partnership.

 

Countries with authoritarian regimes and poor civic space shouldn’t be eligible to host major UN events, as they are unlikely to facilitate meaningful participation by all stakeholders.

We first thought hosting COP29 could ease the pressure on local civil society. But we were wrong. Five organisations formed a coalition, Climate of Justice, to mobilise civil society ahead of COP29 but one of its leaders, Anar Mammadli, was arrested and the group had to stop its activities. The risks became just too high for those involved.

The government then intensified its crackdown, with the number of political prisoners tripling over the past year. Many of these prisoners are civil society activists or political opposition members. The government’s strategy is clear: increase repression as the summit approaches. Civil society groups are under extreme pressure. They cannot speak publicly, they face major threats and their space to operate is severely restricted. What little civic and political space there was has now been completely shut down, and it will likely continue to worsen.

Only Azerbaijani civil society activists in exile, like me, are still able to make critical statements and mobilise. So we formed another coalition, the Climate Observers Partnership, made up mainly of exiled climate observers and some local members who must remain anonymous for security reasons. But we feel betrayed even by like-minded states. It seems no one cares about Azerbaijani civil society.

COP29 seems to be a lost cause for us. It’s highly unlikely any local CSOs will be able to participate. We have been given delegate accreditation badges, but many of us are unsure if we will be able to attend. The government doesn’t want exiled activists at an international event. I can’t go to Azerbaijan because the government has revoked my citizenship. I won a case in the European Court of Human Rights, which ruled that this decision was illegal, but delays in implementing the ruling have left me stateless.

But we see COP29 as an opportunity to highlight the government’s failures and expose its false promises and the gaps between what it says and what it does. Azerbaijani activists in exile have joined forces with those in the country to make our voices heard on international platforms. We understand that many in Azerbaijan may fear repercussions for this kind of activism, so those in exile are ready to take the lead.

 

This is an edited extract of our conversation with Emin. Read the full interview here.

Even if independent Azerbaijani voices feel emboldened to speak out during the summit, taking advantage of the space the host is expected to provide for civil society, they may face arrest once the international spotlight shifts away from Baku. The hosting agreement signed between the government and the United Nations (UN) appears to give the government the power to act against people who criticise its domestic policies during the summit. The text states that all participants must respect the laws and regulations of Azerbaijan and not interfere in its internal affairs, and is vague on what constitutes interference.

This means voices from Azerbaijan challenging their government’s extractivist economic model and its associated corruption won’t be heard, while the numerous fossil fuel lobbyists who typically attend COPs will be as free as ever to push for continued extraction. Once again, the loudest voices will be those determined to do the least to tackle climate change.

Time for change

Last month the UN reported that the world is on course for a catastrophic global temperature rise of between 2.6 and 3.1 degrees above pre-industrial levels, which will bring death and destruction on an appalling scale. This year has seen numerous extreme weather events that have wreaked havoc. Climate change makes these events likelier and more devastating.

Against this backdrop, civil society participation is crucial because it’s where the the key voices calling for urgency and ambition come from. Civil society is working to hold states and the fossil fuel industry to account, raise public awareness of the need for action, defend communities, resist extraction and offer innovations, alternatives and practical solutions. That’s why it needs to be in the room – and why excluding it pretty much guarantees worse climate outcomes.

The UN must break this pattern. It’s encouraging that next year the summit will be hosted by Brazil, a country with a vibrant civil society, which has a huge climate responsibility towards the Amazon and which, under its current government, has taken some decisive steps to tackle deforestation. There can be no turning back. Never again should COPs be held in petrostates. Instead, they should be hosted by states that show climate leadership. Nor should they be held in states with highly restricted civic space – something characteristic of many fossil fuel superpowers – so civil society isn’t denied the chance to mobilise fully.

COP hosts should have to commit to respecting human rights and enabling full and diverse participation from domestic and international civil society, and be held accountable if they fail to do so. The ambitious action humanity needs won’t result unless civil society is fully free to voice its demands.

OUR CALLS FOR ACTION

  • The government of Azerbaijan should release all political prisoners and commit to respecting civic freedoms, including the right to protest and express dissent, before, during and after COP29.
  • Global civil society participating in COP29 should show solidarity with Azerbaijani civil society by urging the government to open up civic space.
  • COP rules should be reformed so that states with closed civic space and dominant oil and gas industries can no longer host summits.

Azerbaijan is currently on the CIVICUS Monitor Watchlist, which draws attention to countries where there is a serious and rapid decline in respect for civic space.

For interviews or more information, please contact research@civicus.org.

Cover photo by Aziz Karimov/Reuters via Gallo Images