The need to act on the climate crisis has never been clearer. In 2023, heat records have been shattered around the world. Seemingly every day brings news of extreme weather, imperilling lives. In July, United Nations (UN) Secretary-General António Guterres grimly announced that ‘the era of global boiling has arrived’.

In short, there’s a lot at stake as the world heads into its next climate summit.

But there’s a big problem: COP28, the latest in the annual series of conferences of parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, will be held in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). This is a country with closed civic space, where dissent is criminalised and activists are routinely detained. It’s also a fossil fuel power bent on continuing extraction.

At multilateral summits where climate change decisions are made, it’s vital that civil society is able to mobilise to demand greater ambition, hold states and fossil fuel companies and financiers to account and ensure the views of people most affected by climate change are heard. But that can’t happen in conditions of closed civic space.

Not the first time: looking back at COP27

Some of the problems that might dog COP28 can be anticipated by looking at the experience of COP27, held in 2022 in Egypt, another country with closed civic space. Civil society used the run-up to the summit to call attention to the state’s ruthless crackdown on human rights, including the vast numbers of political prisoners and the torture and ill-treatment they’re subjected to.

But rather than responding to these concerns, the Egyptian regime used the event as a PR opportunity, seeking to burnish its international image. It ignored international calls to open up space around the summit, held in an inaccessible location amid tight security, with security guards forming an intimidating presence.

Ahead of COP27, numerous Egyptians were arrested for calling for protests.  At least one international activist was denied access to Egypt. There were long waits to get official approval to hold a protest in the meeting’s designated protest area. People from international civil society organisations (CSOs) complained about harassment and intimidation. UN independent human rights experts reported that several civil society members were interrogated and photographed by security officers.

The official conference app was criticised for giving the Egyptian government incredibly broad scope to access user information, enabling surveillance, to the extent that some states told their delegations not to use it. The meeting’s wifi blocked access to major news websites and Human Rights Watch’s site. When it came down to it, the Egyptian government, as summit host, treated international civil society as it treats domestic civil society – with hostility and contempt.

Egyptian CSOs working to defend human rights were denied accreditation. The government was accused of handpicking domestic civil society to exclude dissenting voices. For those taking part, self-censorship seemed part of the deal. International civil society faced the dilemma of whether to participate to try to advance climate action by any means possible and risk legitimising the regime, or boycott it – a decision that could spark recriminations. A year on, the problems are remarkably similar.

Concerning signs

In September, the UAE was added to the CIVICUS Monitor Watchlist, which highlights countries experiencing significant declines in respect for civic freedoms. Civic space in the UAE has long been closed: no dissent against the government or advocacy for human rights is allowed, and those who try to speak out risk criminalisation. In 2022, a Cybercrime Law introduced even stronger restrictions on online expression.

There’s widespread torture in jails and detention centres and at least 58 prisoners of conscience have been held in prison despite having completed their sentences. Many of them were part of a group known as the UAE 94, jailed for the crime of calling for democracy. Among the ranks of those incarcerated is Ahmed Mansoor, sentenced to 10 years in jail in 2018 for his work documenting the human rights situation, and held in solitary confinement for over five years and counting.

Ahead of COP28, civil society has worked to highlight the absurdity of holding such a vital summit in closed civic space conditions. Domestic civil society is unable to influence COP28 and its preparatory process, and it’s hard to see how civil society, both domestic and international, will be able to express itself freely during the summit.

Civil society is demanding that the UAE government demonstrate that it’s prepared to respect human rights, including by releasing political prisoners – something it’s so far failed to budge on.

An ominous sign came when the UAE hosted a climate and health summit in April. Participants were reportedly instructed not to criticise the government, corporations, individuals or Islam, and not to protest while in the UAE.

Civic space restrictions aren’t the only indication the UAE isn’t taking COP28 seriously. The president of the summit, Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, also happens to be head of the state’s fossil fuel corporation ADNOC, the world’s 11^th-biggest oil and gas producer. It’s like putting an arms manufacturer in charge of peace talks. Multiple other ADNOC staff members have roles in the summit. ADNOC is currently talking up its investments in renewable energies, all while planning one of the biggest expansions of oil and gas extraction of any fossil fuel corporation.

Meanwhile the UAE is one of the staunchest allies of its powerful neighbour Saudi Arabia, which has a history of preventing text on fossil fuels making its way into climate agreements. There are rumours that Saudi officials have had prior scrutiny of the COP28 host’s announcements. No commitments on reducing fossil fuel extraction can be expected.

Instead of real action, all the signs are that the regime is instrumentalising its hosting of COP28 to try to launder its reputation, as indicated by its hiring of expensive international lobbying firms. An array of fake social media accounts were created to praise the UAE as host and defend it from criticism. A leaked list of key COP28 talking points prepared by the host made no mention of fossil fuels.

A summit that should be about tackling the climate crisis – and quickly – is instead being used to greenwash the image of the host government –something easiest achieved if civil society is kept at arm’s length.

Fossil fuel lobby to the fore

With civil society excluded, the voices of those actively standing in the way of climate action will continue to dominate negotiations. That’s what happened at COP27, where 636 fossil fuel lobbyists took part – and left happy. Like every summit before it, its final statement made no commitment to reduce oil and gas use.

The only way to change this is to open the doors to civil society. Civil society has consistently sounded the alarm and raised public awareness of the need for climate action. It’s the source of practical solutions to cut emissions and adapt to climate impacts. It urges more ambitious commitments and more funding, including for the loss and damage caused by climate change. It defends communities against environmentally destructive impacts, resists extraction and promotes sustainability. It pressures states and the private sector to stop approving and financing further extraction and to transition more urgently to more renewable energies and more sustainable practices. These are the voices that must be heard if the cycle of runaway climate change is to be stopped.

COPs should be held in countries that offer an enabling civic space that allows strong domestic mobilisation, and summit hosts should be expected to abide by high standards when it comes to domestic and international access and participation. That should be part of the deal hosts make in return for the global prestige that comes with hosting high-level events. Civil society’s exclusion mustn’t be allowed to happen again.

All quotations are edited extracts of interviews with civil society activists and leaders. Visit our interviews hub for the full versions.