Austria is the latest country in Europe to see a far-right victory. The Freedom Party (FPÖ) came first in the 29 September parliamentary election with around 29 per cent of the vote. For the first time, it beat the established centre-right party, the People’s Party (ÖVP). The result is ominous for excluded groups such as migrants and refugees, Muslims and LGBTQI+ people, and for Austria’s civil society as a whole.

Extreme agenda

The FPÖ’s origins date back to 1956. It was founded by a former Nazi but took a broadly centrist path until the 1980s, when it started to evolve into the far-right populist force it is today.

Its recent election win marks a startling comeback. In the 2019 election, its support collapsed following a corruption scandal sparked by a video that showed its leader offering access to public contracts in return for donations to someone pretending to represent a Russian oligarch. The scandal, known as the Ibiza Affair after the location where the sting operation took place, led to the collapse of the ÖVP-FPÖ government formed after the 2017 election and a new vote in which the FPÖ lost 20 of its 51 seats.

But under the leadership of Herbert Kickl, who took over in 2021, the FPÖ is thriving. As interior minister in the ÖVP-FPÖ government, Kickl was accused of interfering in policing and trying to undermine the rule of law. He also questioned whether Austria should stay part of the European Convention on Human Rights. He’s consistently vilified migrants and refugees, particularly Muslims, and called for more measures to detain them and deport them more quickly. He’s promised to build ‘fortress Austria’ and pursue ‘remigration’ – a term also used by the German far right that means mass deportation.

Kickl has regularly appeared at events with extreme far-right figures, and several FPÖ policies bear the hallmarks of Generation Identity, a cross-European movement that calls for racial segregation. He’s talked of becoming Austria’s ‘people’s chancellor’, an expression with Nazi connotations. During the pandemic, he followed the path of many other extremists by opposing COVID-19 measures and vaccines and spreading conspiracy theories, including false claims about the drug ivermectin. He calls climate measures ‘climate communism’ and claims LGBTQI+ rights are a globally imposed ideology.

Kickl is also a big fan of Vladimir Putin, and Russia’s all-out war on Ukraine hasn’t changed that. The FPÖ has a cooperation agreement with United Russia, Vladimir Putin’s party. It opposes sanctions against Russia, aid to Ukraine and the reception of Ukrainian refugees. Last year, Kickl led his party in a walkout from parliament when Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy gave a speech.

The FPÖ’s comeback was the result of hammering home its messages on migration, which dominated the election debate. There was also considerable focus on crime and security, much of it explicitly linked to migration concerns, following a foiled plot by an Islamic State group to attack a Taylor Swift concert in Vienna. The FPÖ further benefited from lingering anger over pandemic restrictions and unhappiness with the struggling economy and inflation – a common driver of discontent in many of this year’s elections. It also appears to have been boosted by pre-election disinformation, such as claims that other parties would introduce mandatory vaccination.

Many FPÖ voters switched from the ÖVP, particularly in rural areas. But disturbingly, polls also show the FPÖ received strong support from younger voters, coming first among those under 35 with 27 per cent of their vote. This partly reflects the FPÖ’s skilful use of TikTok, but also points to there’s dissatisfaction among many young people that mainstream parties aren’t speaking to.

Meanwhile the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPÖ) was left with its lowest-ever vote share, at just 21 per cent, while the Greens, in coalition with the ÖVP in the last government, dropped to around eight per cent – even after Austria experienced devastating floods just weeks before the election, caused by storms made much worse by climate change.

What next?

What happens next – with weeks of talks potentially ahead – is up to Austria’s less extreme parties. The most likely scenario is an FPÖ-ÖVP coalition, reversing the roles they played from 2017 to 2019. ÖVP leader and Austria’s current chancellor Karl Nehammer has ruled out any coalition including Kickl, but stranger compromises have been struck when power is at stake, and Nehammer has also faced calls to step aside.

The ÖVP has, after all, followed the path of mainstream conservative parties across Europe in adopting much of the language and many of the anti-migrant and anti-Muslim policies of its far-right challenger. It has done so in the vain hope of stopping its supporters switching, a tactic that often backfires: given the choice between a party that has shaped populist discourse and an opportunistic copycat, many will go for the original.

One possible scenario would be for Kickl to step aside and take no formal role when his party enters government, while remaining the power behind the throne; a similar compromise was struck following the Dutch election, when a far-right party came first but its maverick leader, Geert Wilders, had to give up on his hopes of becoming prime minister. Austria’s president, former Green party leader Alexander Van der Bellen, may have some influence in deciding who to ask to initiate coalition negotiations. But so far Kickl has shown no willingness to put his political ambitions on hold.

Alternatively, mainstream parties could try to form a coalition that excludes the FPÖ. But they could have done so long ago. The FPÖ is no stranger to government: it joined a coalition with the ÖVP after the 1999 election, and then again from 2017 to 2019. Its 1999 entry into government caused international alarm, with many European Union countries imposing sanctions to try to isolate it. Now things are different: the FPÖ’s presence has become normalised. Unlike in France and Germany, mainstream parties never formed a cordon sanitaire around it by refusing to partner with it.

It may be too late now: isolating the party that finished first could be seen as anti-democratic, and the FPÖ would make political capital out of it. An unstable coalition would be the most likely outcome, leading to another election where the FPÖ would expect to do even better.

A dangerous moment

These are dangerous times for Europe. In country after country, support for mainstream parties is falling and people are more willing to embrace once-fringe alternatives. While this can lead to some surges in support for green parties, it’s consistently far-right populist and nationalist parties that are best able to capitalise on discontent, shape political discourse and fight elections on their chosen turf, which invariably involves hostility towards migrants, refugees and other excluded groups.

Far-right leaders across Europe – including Hungrary’s authoritarian prime minister Viktor Orbán, France’s National Rally leader Marine le Pen and Wilders in the Netherlands – rushed to congratulate Kickl on his win. Right-wing nationalists and populists control the government in Hungary and Italy, are part of the ruling coalition in Finland and the Netherlands, are propping up the government in Sweden, and came first in last year’s Swiss election, this year’s European Parliament election in France, and the Thuringia state election in Germany. One third of European voters back populist parties.

The wheel will surely turn again, as people come to realise the deceptively simple solutions far-right politicians offer don’t solve complex problems and don’t make their lives any better. But they can do a lot of damage while in power – and even when they’re not, as other parties are encouraged to imitate them. They can cause a lot of harm to the lives and rights of migrants, refugees and Black, Brown and Muslim people.

Racism was on the rise in Austria since before the election and can only become more normalised as the result emboldens people to commit more racist acts. LGBTQI+ people are another frequent target. Then there’s the climate: with so little time remaining to arrest runaway climate change, inaction will make things worse.

Civil society needed

The rise of the far right is bad news for civil society, which exists to defend rights, express dissent and hold power to account. This makes it a target for politicians who insist they have a monopoly on the answers.

Austria still has relatively open civic space, which means people are free to come together, mobilise and speak out. In recent years, there’ve been some signs of decline, including arrests of protesters. But things can be expected to get significantly worse if the FPÖ comes to power. Austria’s civil society needs to work together to protect civic freedoms, protect excluded groups and hold the next government to account.

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